The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) maintains that the Balearic Islands face a risk of exceeding the spending rule in 2025 and 2026 and has worsened its deficit forecasts. According to the agency, the deficit could reach 0.1% of GDP in 2025 and 0.2% in 2026. This is stated in the report on the projects and budget lines of the autonomous communities, which analyzes the information provided by the Government on its key priorities for 2026, a document prepared prior to drafting the budget for the following year. AIReF examines the forecasts and measures included in the document and assesses the likelihood of compliance with the established fiscal rules. Regarding the spending and deficit rule, the Authority calculates that eligible spending will increase by 5.6% in 2025 and 6% in 2026, exceeding the established limits of 3.2% and 3.3%, respectively. If the spending rule is strictly adhered to, the Balearic Islands would register a surplus of 0.1% in 2025 and 0.3% in 2026. However, according to AIReF, the archipelago anticipates spending growth adjusted to the reference rate in 2025 and slightly lower growth in 2026, which allows for [the following].

The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) has expressed its disagreement with the government's spending increase in 2024, which was 14.5%, while the Ministry of Finance's spending rule set a maximum of 2.6% last year—a deviation of 11.9 percentage points. This is the fourth time the islands have failed to meet this budget stability target since the current fiscal rules were implemented—the previous breaches were in 2014, 2015, and 2018. Furthermore, AIRef points out the impact that the government's tax cuts have had on the spending rule. In fact, the government has reduced taxes worth more than €500 million since the beginning of its term (according to AIReF data, €51 million were lost in 2024 from wealth tax alone), according to Prime Minister Marga Prohens.