“We are in shock, amazing”. “It is very frustrating”. “Whatever we do in the Islands, the reality of the PSOE overwhelms us”. “It is a tsunami”. These are some of the reactions among socialist party officials from the Islands after two weeks of national headlines about alleged corruption in the PSOE. The storm at Ferraz has impacted the morale of the PSIB at a delicate moment: with Francina Armengol's leadership in doubt and Iago Negueruela in the midst of a strategy change in Parliament.

The coordinator of MÉS per Mallorca, Lluís Apesteguia, and the deputy Maria Ramon announced this Saturday their candidacy for the primaries of the eco-sovereigntist party to lead the list in the 2027 regional elections. They did so with a call to strengthen the party's political project and with the intention of placing it in a position to contest political leadership in the Balearic Islands.

Politics has become a risky activity in Spain, a permanent race to sustain improbable majorities, a task more suited to acrobats and movie stuntmen. People who wouldn't suffer from vascular problems under any circumstances. Even in Andalusia, the PP's majority has not withstood the wear and tear. Anxiety and balancing acts: this is also the general situation in the Balearic Islands. Except in Ibiza. On the most turbulent island in the Mediterranean, as modern as it is feverish, politicians live in a beneficial oasis: it is the magic of absolute majority. There is one year left until the next local and regional elections (the last ones were on May 28, 2023) and not a leaf stirs on a tree here. Certainly, in recent weeks Aena has livened things up a bit with its delirious proposal to expand the airport. But hey! We know what we're about here; in a couple of days, no one will remember Aena and its megalomaniacal dreams – which I have no doubt will be executed to a high percentage. The season is starting, and we have to make money for the whole year.

Salvador Illa continues to lead the polls for the 12-M elections. According to the latest survey, published by Crónica Global, the socialists would improve their 2021 results and would secure 38 deputies – they currently have 33. However, Illa could once again emerge as the winner at the polls without reaching the Generalitat. According to the survey, pro-independence parties would maintain their majority with 69 seats, with Junts (33 deputies) ahead of Esquerra (28 deputies) and the CUP (8 deputies), a sum that could open the door to the investiture of former president Carles Puigdemont. Another possible governing majority would involve a tripartite government of socialists, republicans, and commons, who would secure five deputies in Parliament. Nevertheless, Esquerra has already publicly refused to make Illa president of the Generalitat.

“We are waiting for the Andalusians”. This was the mantra that the Balearic PP repeated after the results from Extremadura and Aragon. Juanma Moreno Bonilla is one of Marga Prohens' main points of reference among the popular barons. The president has sought to replicate both her managerial profile – with tax reductions and administrative simplification laws – and her moderate discourse and the model of relationship with Vox. But the insufficient victory of the Andalusian president who, with 53 seats, has fallen two deputies short of an absolute majority, has cast doubts on the Andalusian path, and forces the popular party to rethink its strategy for 2027.

MÁS per Mallorca has kicked off the primary process to choose candidates for the Consell de Mallorca and the Parliament. This was done after the Assembly met this Wednesday in Palma and approved the regulations that will govern these elections.

Thirteen months remain until the regional elections and all Balearic parties are already in full electoral campaign mode or, failing that, will be very soon.

A race against time for the PP to push through the maximum possible legislative changes before the elections. Their main obstacle is the slowness of bill processing in Parliament. To overcome it, they have devised some solutions: an abuse of the decree-law figure, which the Constitutional Court criticized last Friday in a ruling, and the stuffing of legislative initiatives with amendments that have nothing to do with them. But with the processing of the law to accelerate strategic projects, the popular party has gone too far: they have submitted 88 amendments affecting up to 70 different norms, most of them unrelated to strategic projects. Furthermore, they have introduced some of the agreements with Vox against Catalan and immigration.

The PP has presented dozens of amendments to the law on strategic projects that have nothing to do with the purpose of the norm. Some have served to create an almost parallel norm. Otherwise, it has invited Vox to present some of its pacts on Catalan and immigration, also through amendments.

Starting this week, we'll begin to see where the relationship between the PP and Vox might be headed, and therefore, we'll have a rough idea of ​​how it will impact Balearic politics right after next year's elections.

Francina Armengol is beginning to show signs of doubt. "A year ago, she expressed her desire to be a candidate for the Balearic Islands in informal conversations," says a source who knows her well. "Lately, it's not so clear." This sense of insecurity has also permeated party ranks, who are already wondering what they will do if the Socialist ultimately decides not to run. In response, the PSIB (Socialist Party of the Balearic Islands) has begun searching for potential successors. With just over a year until the elections, they need to act. Sources within the party apparatus confirm that the Secretary of State for Tourism, Rosario Sánchez, is gaining traction in the race. The party leader in Mallorca, Amanda Fernández, is also gaining ground, although the initial plan is to primarily develop her as a candidate for the Consell de Mallorca (Island Council). The final decision will rest with Armengol, who remains all-powerful in the Balearic Islands, and ultimately with the Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, who will oversee the process. "It's too early to rule out Armengol running," a Socialist source asserts. "Everything will be decided in the primaries," the parliamentary group emphasizes. But, although the final decision on candidates rests with the membership, the establishment's support is decisive in any internal process.

How to organize the space to the left of the PSOE to curb the rise of Vox? This question has been behind several recent moves in Madrid: Gabriel Rufián's (ERC) call to build a republican front and Yolanda Díaz's announcement that she will not run again as Sumar's candidate in 2027. For now, MÁS per Mallorca has avoided commenting on these changes or giving any clues about its future. But the debate engulfing the left affects them directly. Is it worth having a member of parliament in Congress? If they run again in a coalition, what alliances would be best? What role should Balearic eco-sovereignism play in Madrid? The sources consulted only agree on the starting point: AraMés must lead the candidacy in the Balearic Islands, whatever form it takes.

Marga Prohens' third year in office beIt's a pre-campaign period. December has already set the tone for 2026 with the elections in Extremadura, on the one hand, and the MÉS congress for Mallorca, on the other, because the opposition is also preparing for the 2027 elections. The president has ruled out, for now, the possibility of bringing forward elections in the Balearic Islands, despite tensions with Vox's partners. But that scenario could change depending on the results of the elections in Aragon and Andalusia, which will serve to gauge the PP's chances. It will also depend on the needs of the party's national leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who is looking for the opportune moment to end the 'Sanchismo' (the influence of Pedro Sánchez) and is counting on the regional leaders as a weapon.

The President of the Balearic Government, Marga Prohens, highlighted the "stability" of her administration and stressed that early elections "cannot be called for political opportunism." This was the Balearic president's response to questions from the media, posed this Wednesday at an event commemorating November 25th, following the previous day's parliamentary session, in which the possibility of early elections in the Balearic Islands was suggested.