It begins in December, and with it comes the threat of a surge in flu cases in the Balearic Islands, just as it has already happened in the rest of Spain, where the weighted rate has risen to 40 cases per 10,000 inhabitants, above the epidemic threshold of 36. In the Islands, the rate is 18.2%. Although this is not yet a high figure, it marks three consecutive weeks of growth, and the trend is expected to intensify. "It will eventually happen. The flu will reach its peak at Christmas," says Joan Carles March, a professor at the Andalusian School of Public Health. "When people say we're better off than the rest of Spain, that's not correct. The comparison should be made with how the Balearic Islands were a year ago, when the incidence rate was below 10 cases," he continues. Although the rise in the epidemic curve is currently gentle, he warns that this will change. "It will spike, and there will probably be a surge of cases in the week between Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve," which will put pressure on healthcare services. The 'good news' is that in other years the epidemic curve began to decline in mid-February; this year, if everything goes as planned, it will do so sooner, because the duration of the epidemic is usually the same.