Antonio Turiel: "A much stronger economic crisis than that of 2008 is coming"

PalmaFor years, Antonio Turiel (León, 1970), a physicist, mathematician, and CSIC researcher, has been warning that the global economic model is approaching the planet's energy limits. The war between Israel and Iran and the tension in the Strait of Hormuz, he assures, have only accelerated a crisis he considers inevitable. Invited to Mallorca by the No Normal movement, he argues that the Balearic Islands must prepare for a future with less oil, less tourism, and greater social vulnerability. "The worst thing would be to continue thinking that everything will go back to how it was," he warns.

The war with Iran and the conflict over Hormuz have materialized one of the risks you have been warning about for years. Is it a conjunctural crisis?

— No. Beyond strategic control and the confrontation between Israel and Iran, it has weighed heavily that United States oil production is reaching its peak and beginning to fall. The fracking has allowed them to increase it for about 15 years, but when it falls, it does so very quickly. The United States sees that they will lose control capacity and need to dominate resources that are not in the hands of their allies. We are entering a phase of permanent scarcity: in September, the International Energy Agency concluded that global oil and gas extraction is about to begin its decline.

There is fuel, planes are flying and there have been no major supply problems. Where is the crisis?

— In all shocks there is a delay. In the 70s, real economic problems began between six and nine months later. Now states are releasing strategic reserves and China has reduced imports from ten to five million barrels a day, but reserves are not infinite. Furthermore, Persian Gulf oil is ideal for producing diesel and kerosene. In Germany, they have 12% less diesel than usual and in France, supply problems are beginning. Spain is better positioned, because it kept refineries open, while Europe closed more than 40% in 20 years.

Place possible restrictions in autumn. In what scenario?

— At the end of September, by law, restriction mechanisms must be activated. It does not mean rationing, but rather limitations on use. If the current pace continues, we could reach rationing in January or February. It depends on many factors, especially the end of the war; even in that case, it could take months until flows are re-established.

And if the conflict is resolved?

— Even in the best-case scenario, no one can take away from us a much stronger economic crisis than the one in 2008. Many destroyed things have to be paid for, numerous products have not arrived, and there are enormous tensions in the supply chains. It is the worst oil shock in history. With the Arab embargoes, 8% of consumption was compromised; now, around 30%. In the best-case scenario, there will be a major global economic crisis, and in the worst-case scenario, we could face a brutal problem. It will also destroy jobs.

Renewables generate more than half of Spanish electricity. Why do you consider the transition to have failed?

— Because the idea was based on the premise that the entire energy matrix would be electric and that the technology already existed, but this is false. Electricity only accounts for between 22% and 23% of final energy consumption in Spain, and part of the rest is difficult or impossible to electrify. Furthermore, we have 147 gigawatts of installed capacity for an average consumption of 27.5 and peaks of 41. There is an excess of installation and a lack of profitability. Electricity consumption has fallen by 12% since 2008, when it was supposed to grow, because Spain is deindustrializing. The electric car has limitations, and green hydrogen is useful for some industrial applications, but it is not a panacea.

What transition would be viable?

— The first thing to do is to reduce consumption and follow the guidelines of degrowth: managing resource scarcity and environmental problems without compromising well-being. Degrowth is incompatible with capitalism, because capitalism always needs to grow. Technologically we know how to do it, but it is politically unacceptable, because it forces us to abandon the false idea that we will continue to grow eternally.

Can the Balearic Islands maintain the current millions of tourists?

— No. How can we not live off tourism if it is our main industry? But, when fuel becomes scarce and a strong economic crisis arrives, the Balearic Islands will have a hard time. The model has worked economically, even if it was not good for citizens, the environment and resources, but it will be unviable. Politicians will want to "return to normality", when we must think about Islands that will not live off tourism as they do now.

When will tourism start to be reduced?

— The decline will begin to be noticed next year. Tourism is a discretionary expense: families travel if they have disposable income. Ours is not mostly luxury, but middle class, which suffers most from these crises. There may be one or two bad years and then it may seem like we are recovering, but it will be then when the systemic effect of the fall in world oil production will begin to be perceived.

Will travel be reserved for the rich?

— In the long term, yes. According to the report by the International Energy Agency, even in the most favorable scenario, oil extraction in 2050 will be approximately half of what it is today. Some activities will find alternative fuels or will be electrified, but it is very complicated in non-terrestrial transport. In 15, 20, or 30 years, tourism will be mainly for the rich.

What should the Government do now?

— Bet on low-intensity diversification in energy and create funds for the most difficult times. A drop in tourism of only 5% or 10% will already force us to help many people and it will be structural, it will get worse. It is not clear that a social and labor crisis can be avoided: the homework has not been done and we carry a lot of inertia.

How do you imagine the Balearic Islands in 20 years?

— The biggest problem is not recognizing the signs. Nobody can change everything overnight, but we must accept that things change and adapt to them gradually. The worst thing would be to claim that everything will be as it was before. It won't be. Furthermore, the Islands will face extreme weather phenomena and drought.

Can scarcity cause a return to coal?

— It's happening. Oil, gas, and coal together account for 80% of global energy consumption. China and India compensate for their lack of oil with coal. This helps to navigate the crisis, but it exacerbates the environmental problem. On a global scale, we will see a resurgence of coal, and it will even end up happening in Spain.

What can a citizen do?

— We cannot resolve the conflict with Iran, but it is not necessary either. In practice, our problems are keeping our jobs and getting food. We must ensure that the neighbor's child does not go to bed without dinner. The answer involves mutual help, creating networks, and acting in our environment.