Elections are smelled
In the Balearic Islands, no elections have been called yet, but the characteristic smell of pre-campaign is already in the air: more headlines, more polls, more visits to markets and fairs, and more politicians promising that, now yes, they have understood what really worries people...
It is in this context that we ask ourselves the big question: what can happen in a year's time in our region? To try to answer it, some of us have started to look at what is happening in other territories. Not because the Islands are a mere extension of what is happening in the rest of the State, but because political trends are often detected election after election and end up drawing quite recognizable patterns. And what we have recently seen in Extremadura, Aragon, Castilla y León, and Andalusia is quite clear: the PP wins, Vox grows, the PSOE wears down, and the space to the left of the socialists only holds when it is capable of presenting a coherent and credible proposal. It is no divine revelation, but it is a useful clue to understand where things might be heading here next May. Always keeping in mind that there are 12 months left until the elections and many unexpected things could alter the political landscape again.
But well, let's go step by step, explaining each of these points.
Firstly, it is clear that the PP has consolidated its territorial hegemony. It has won all these elections and has become the dominant party in a large part of the State. Feijóo can boast, put on a presidential face, and repeat that he represents moderation. The problem is that, once the votes are counted, he continues to need Vox... So the PP wins, but not as much as it would like.
The second idea is that Vox continues to rise – but beware, they are far from 'surpassing' the Popular Party! – and they have consolidated themselves as a structural piece of the conservative bloc. They are no longer a fleeting eccentricity or a temporary tantrum. It is a force with a loyal electorate, especially among the youngest, and with the capacity to influence governments. However, let's be clear about one thing: the PP and Vox do not really get along in public. Some pretend to be moderate and others accuse them of being soft. But, when it comes down to it, they understand each other well enough to share departments and approve budgets. Like those couples who argue all day but don't separate because, in the end, the mortgage weighs heavily.
Thirdly, we can say that the progressive bloc is demobilized and that the PSOE continues to lose momentum. In Extremadura, the socialists suffered a real blow, in Aragon and Andalusia they lost 1 in 10 votes and only in Castilla y León did they hold on with a certain dignity. The pattern is repetitive: where socialists had been hegemonic, it is now increasingly difficult to convince them.
Finally, the elections also leave another important lesson. The space to the left of the PSOE only works when it presents clear and recognizable projects. Adelante Andalucía grew strongly. La Chunta Aragonesista, too. The message is evident: when there is a project, rooted in the territory and social movements, people respond. When there are three acronyms, four logos and six press conferences explaining that this time the division is strategic, the result is usually a considerable blow.
In short, in these four regional elections, the PP and Vox have garnered between 57% and 62% of the votes. The result is that the right wins everywhere: among men and women; among workers and the unemployed; among the popular classes and the middle classes… But, hey! Let's not be mistaken, this does not mean that Spanish society has suddenly become ultraconservative. Just as we were not all Scandinavian social democrats when the PSOE was sweeping the polls, now we are not all racist 'skinheads'. What happens is that many people perceive that the right offers clearer – albeit simplistic – answers to real problems: housing, low wages, insecurity, immigration and distrust of institutions. And that hooks them.
And in the Islands, what?
If we transfer these trends to the Balearic Islands, the patterns are identifiable: the PP and Vox start with an advantage, the PSOE shows clear signs of wear and tear, and the space to the left of the socialists will only have real options if it is capable of building a solid, credible alternative with a vocation for a majority. From this framework, other local unknowns emerge, such as the future of Coalición por Mallorca and the capacity of Podem, Sumar and EU to present a minimally ordered proposal. Fragmentation, as has been seen in other territories, usually comes at a high price.
If we talk about MÉS per Mallorca and Més per Menorca, we can say that they seem to have the wind in their favor. The good moment that other territorial left-wing parties are experiencing shows that there is room for projects rooted in the territory, with their own identity and with a clear discourse on the issues that most concern citizens: housing, the State model, the protection of the territory, and quality of life, for example.
Thus, the eco-sovereignist space has many points for the next elections to be favorable to it. Now, we will have to see what it does with all this political capital. And in my opinion, it can opt for two paths: it can wait for the PSOE's wear and tear and the difficulties of the state left-wing to make it gain weight gradually and by inertia. Or it can take a step forward and ambitiously assume the leadership of the Balearic progressive and sovereignist space. The window of opportunity is there; now we have to see if we dare to take advantage of it.