The relative weight of tourism, the real weight of everything

The latest data suggests that tourism has lost relative weight in the Balearic economy. But an honest assessment is necessary: it's not that there's less tourist activity or that the pressure it exerts on the territory has decreased. Other sectors have grown even more, and many of them are closely linked to the same model. The real estate business, construction, commerce, and domestic consumption resulting from population growth dilute tourism's percentage share. But the fact that the sector weighs less proportionally is no consolation.

If tourism is losing ground, it's because other activities with a very similar impact have emerged: increased land use, greater pressure on services, more traffic, and greater demand for water and energy. The number of residents has grown to levels that force a reassessment of the Islands' actual capacity to absorb more people. Meanwhile, airports continue to increase the number of flights, supermarkets are registering record sales, and roads are gridlocked both in summer and often during traditionally quieter months. The stress on natural resources is evident and persistent; water is scarce, and the environment is subject to an ever-increasing pace of activity. Thus, the debate cannot be about whether tourism has more or less of an impact. The central debate is what limits the Balearic Islands can and should accept. To what extent can we continue to grow in activity and population? How far do we want—and can we—go before exhausting a model that already shows clear signs of saturation? Furthermore, as Pedro Oliver, president of the College of Tourist Guides, recently warned at ARABalears, the Islands are heading towards becoming a luxury destination, with a real estate and tourism market increasingly geared towards the elite. Perhaps they are no longer tourists but are already considered residents. But this, far from easing the pressure, could end up increasing it because it means more demand for exclusive services, more consumption of resources, and greater inequality.

At the same time, as Oliver rightly observed, the contradictions of an overflowing system persist: we say we want to limit cruise ships, but we expand the port; we claim we want fewer tourists, but the airport continues to grow; we advocate for regulating accommodations, but we don't address the root cause: the myriad forms of illegal tourist rentals. These are decisions that point in opposite directions and hinder any long-term strategy. Therefore, rather than celebrating that tourism's proportional weight is decreasing, what is needed is a serious and courageous discussion about the carrying capacity of the Balearic Islands. We need to establish clear and democratically agreed-upon limits. The future of these islands will depend less on whether we reduce the weight of tourism by a few percentage points than on whether we are able to preserve a territory and a quality of life that are already being sustained with great effort.