The Balearic parties take positions for the general elections

Early exam for Prohens

The PP had been calling for general elections for months. However, it would have preferred the early election to take place during the Ceuta crisis, and not during the housing protests. In last Tuesday's plenary session, both the president Marga Prohens and the Minister of Housing, José Luis Mateo, were questioned up to eight times about housing, and the opposition will not stop asking why the Government refuses to limit rental prices until the moment to vote arrives. The elections have become an early test of the Executive's management.

“The PSOE understood that it was a favorable moment to mobilize its voters,” admit sources from the president's team. But despite this setback, the PP breathes easy. Last May it renewed its internal bodies with a view to the 2027 regional elections and anticipating a possible early election. It is also aware that the polls are smiling upon it despite Pedro Sánchez's tactical move. “We have not observed a change in trend,” the same sources assure. If there is no last-minute plot twist, its head of the list for the Balearic Islands will be José Vicente Marí Bosó, current deputy spokesperson for the Popular parliamentary group in Congress.

Landlords versus tenants

“Housing does not bother us,” point out party sources, who assure that the Government will take the opportunity to boast about its recipe for housing, which involves freeing up land, promoting construction, and introducing tax breaks for new homeowners. Although the left positions itself in defense of the most vulnerable sectors, such as tenants, the Popular Party will stand on the side of the owners. “We are a country of small property owners, and the Spanish government has given them a sense of fear,” point out knowledgeable sources.

The encampments regarding the Maricarmen case do not represent anything new for the Balearic PP either, the same sources assure. Protests over skyrocketing housing prices—rents are 70% more expensive than four years ago—have occurred in the Islands since the beginning of the legislative term. “Social mobilization is not always channeled electorally,” popular party sources opine.

Regarding the relationship with Vox, there has not been a new clash between the parties for months, and the far-right has announced that it is willing to support the agrarian law, one of the Government's last bullets. Even so, the PP keeps its distance and has avoided buying into the theory of a Vox-led fraud. It considers that fueling this suspicion could be counterproductive and demobilize people who can only vote by mail.

Beyond the elections, a possible victory for Alberto Núñez Feijóo could deactivate part of the Government's argument. “If the PP governs, what will we do until the regional elections, without being able to say that Madrid is killing us?” asserts a Government official. Be that as it may, Prohens will continue to maintain an institutional profile as her “main calling card.”

Armengol asks for the vote again

It is once again Francina Armengol's moment. The former president of the Government and leader of the Congress of Deputies will foreseeably head the PSIB list in the general elections. Once again, the socialists are betting everything on her hyper-leadership, and they plan to especially highlight her work in the Lower House.

“With her, it has been achieved that Catalan, Galician, and Basque can be spoken in Congress, the modification of the Constitution has been accelerated so that Formentera has a senator, and also to change the anachronistic words ‘handicapped’ and ‘diminished’ to ‘people with disabilities’ in the Magna Carta,” defends the spokesperson for the socialist parliamentary group, Iago Negueruela. The PSIB also attributes to Armengol the lifting of the Spanish government's veto on the debate regarding airport co-management of the Islands, although this occurred after the PSOE knew that, otherwise, the PP and Sumar-MÉS could vote in favor of rendering it ineffective in the Bureau.

Armengol will claim her place as part of Pedro Sánchez's core team in Madrid in an election that is being framed as a referendum on the Spanish president. The Socialists feel optimistic about having been able to play with the calendar and call early elections at a time they consider ideal to spur the left-wing voter, while the streets cry out against housing prices. "We are very comfortable in this area," asserts the party spokesperson in Parliament, Iago Negueruela. They showed this in last Tuesday's plenary session, when the group brought out the heavy artillery and forced the PP and Vox to vote against limiting rental prices in the Islands once again. Also remaining for the archives is the scene of Pilar López, a 65-year-old evicted woman, who inside the hemicycle told Prohens: "I voted for you." A fact to which the president reacted by going to meet her and telling her not to let herself be "used" electorally.

Although the left of the PSOE reproaches Sánchez for not having promoted more forceful policies on housing during the eight years he has occupied the Moncloa, the Socialists prefer this debate to that of corruption, the migration crisis in Ceuta, and the state executive's difficulties in pushing laws forward as a minority. The party will focus its efforts on calls for the useful vote. Meanwhile, on the other hand, it is negotiating with MÉS per Mallorca the possibility of presenting a single left-wing candidacy for the Senate, to make the most of the votes.

First round

If the PSOE obtains a good result in the general elections, the PSIB candidate for the regional elections, Rosario Sánchez, may be better positioned. As Secretary of State for Tourism, her image is directly linked to that of the Spanish government. For now, the early election has already allowed her to turn the page on the squabble over tourist overcrowding, an arena in which she was more uncomfortable. Unlike 2023, when the regional elections were held before the state ones, on this occasion the PSOE's results will mark the future of the PSIB.

Abascal is the only candidate

Will Jorge Campos repeat at the head of the Vox Balears candidacy for the general elections? The party's leaders avoid this question by ensuring that their only candidate is Santiago Abascal. "Calm down, the rest of the list heads will be decided in due course," assures the deputy spokesperson of the parliamentary group, Sergio Rodríguez.

It is an open secret among the party's cadres that the state leadership of Vox forced Campos's move into state politics to avoid a barony in the Islands. The party operates in a completely vertical structure without power centers in the autonomous regions, and all decisions are made from the executive in Madrid. After the breakup of the parliamentary group and the internal tensions experienced this term, it is unknown whether the party will bet on Campos again for the state lists.

In recent months, Vox has moved to reorganize the party in the Islands. It appointed Rodríguez, a former critical deputy, as the new head of Territorial Organization. In parallel, the party's state leader and deputy in Congress, María Ruiz, met in Palma with all the party's elected officials. Internal unity is not a priority for the party, because it considers that its voter is guided essentially by the brand. But in recent years, it has suffered so many internal crises throughout the State that it is already showing signs of wear and tear.

Ready from minute one

“We are prepared from minute one,” asserts Rodríguez: “Remigration is the solution to the lack of housing, the saturation of healthcare, and social services.” Vox clings to the anti-immigration discourse and leaves attacks on Catalan and pro-independence sentiment for another time. Even though the return of President Carles Puigdemont is imminent. “We will not let ourselves be dragged into smoke screens,” claims Rodríguez. He also insists on stirring up the specter of possible electoral fraud: “Pedro Sánchez is capable of anything.”

A seat that is considered certain

The Ara Més federation (MÉS per Mallorca, Més per Menorca, and Ara Eivissa) takes for granted that it will maintain the deputy it obtained in 2023 in Congress. Historically, the threshold to access the seat has hovered around 40,000 or 50,000 votes, and Vicenç Vidal received 83,116 just three years ago.

However, the eco-sovereigntists must decide whether to make a pact with the Broad Front, the coalition of the Spanish left. The deputy for Més per Menorca, Josep Castells, warned that any agreement will be made in a “Balearic key”: “We will not participate in a state-level mess.” According to sources from the federation, there are currently talks with the rest of the parties to the left of the PSIB to try to find the ideal formula. Nevertheless, Ara Més has made it clear that it wants the leadership of any coalition in the Balearic Islands. “These negotiations aim to correct the things that did not work in 2023 with the agreement with Sumar-MÉS,” explains the general coordinator of MÉS per Mallorca, Lluís Apesteguia. “The Balearic agenda has not been sufficiently assumed by the Spanish government, and the Sumar group has not functioned as a space for shared work, and all the actors are aware of this,” he continues. Furthermore, the eco-sovereigntists are also negotiating a single candidacy for the Senate with the socialists.

Vicenç Vidal, candidate?

Once this debate is overcome, it remains to be decided who will be the head of the list. The current deputy for Sumar-MÉS, Vicenç Vidal, explains that he is "at the party's disposal" and, therefore, leaves the door open to repeating. But alternative names are also being heard, such as that of the spokesperson for AraMés, Carme Gomila, a member of the party's executive and president of Esquerra Illes. "The most important thing is the formula," insists Vidal, who assures that the space is facing the campaign "with desire and enthusiasm." "The PSOE will have to assume responsibility for not having accelerated housing measures, and the PP for not limiting the rental price," he warns.