The PP's dilemma: "If we get closer to Vox, it will imprison us, and if not, it will grow."

PalmOn immigration, Vox has placed the PP in a dilemma from which it could lose regardless of which option it chooses. Alberto Núñez Feijóo launched into anti-immigration rhetoric in the middle of summer, when arrivals to territories like the Canary Islands were massive, in an attempt to close the gap with his competitor. But the far right remains ahead in the polls, while the PP obtained its worst result of the legislature in the latest CIS poll (23.7%). This state-wide dynamic is worrying the government, according to executive sources, and it affects Marga Prohens personally. "We have a complicated position," these sources point out: "If we get closer to Vox, it imprisons us, and if not, it grows."

The situation is as follows, as expressed by several voices within the party. If the PP aligns with Vox on immigration, it enters its territory, and the far right has no problem hardening its tone even further and dragging the PP into the fold. But if he doesn't, he fears losing voters, as Vox would emerge as the only anti-immigration option at a time when newcomers have become the third most pressing concern for Spaniards, according to the latest CIS study. Vox appears to be winning in all his scenarios. This, in turn, benefits the PSOE, as Vox's rise tends to mobilize left-wing voters.

Several sources within the Executive maintain that President Prohens's position regarding unaccompanied migrant minors predates Feijóo's change of heart and is due to the saturation of the services needed to care for them. However, this summer, the Prime Minister has turned up the heat on the controversy. The Government has challenged all Spanish government regulations that would require it to accept migrant minors arriving in the Canary Islands, Ceuta, and Melilla, and has demanded emergency immigration status, knowing that it would be denied. Despite the fact that there are already 694 minors in the islands, it should exceed the 1,218 approved by the Moncloa. In parallel, Prohens has created a General Directorate of Immigration and Cooperation and has appointed National Police Officer Manuel Pavón as its main official. Furthermore, the minister most at odds with Vox—especially regarding immigration and gender-based violence—during the scrutiny sessions in Parliament, Catalina Cirer, was removed from her post last July. "We are in an extreme situation; we are expected to reach 10,000 boat arrivals, and not addressing the issue is giving Vox wings," government sources point out, insisting that "we must talk" about immigration because it is a "citizen concern." In this sense, they justify the tone of the president and her team as much more "respectful" and focused on the protection of "human rights" than that of Vox, which speaks directly about "criminals" and calls for "mass deportations" of immigrants, something illegal.

Landing Vox's "stones"

In practice, the immigration measures Vox imposed on the PP in the 2025 budget agreement are milder than its flagship proposals. Government sources have explained that they are accustomed to taking Vox's "stones" in any area. During the negotiations over the budget, complaints from some Popular Party leaders were common about the difficulty of reaching agreements with a maximalist party that, due to its limited experience in government and the fact that it is led from Madrid, sometimes gets tangled up in what can and cannot be done. An example of this is when, on Monday, September 8, Vox spokesperson Manuela Cañadas mistakenly suggested that the Immigration Law could allow regional governments to sign agreements with countries of origin to return minors.

But the PP also exploits this characteristic of Vox and turns it into a weakness. Several sources consulted admit that some of the immigration measures agreed upon for the 2025 budget—which include, among other issues, modifying the bases for accessing the Guaranteed Social Income to exclude newcomers—were actually proposed by the Popular Party. "Vox asked to eliminate subsidies to organizations, and we agreed, because we weren't providing any," comments a source familiar with the talks. On the contrary, the far right is taking advantage of this to establish itself as the toughest option against immigration. "Between the original and the copy, people always go for the original," summarized a party source. In this regard, Cañadas asked Prohens on Tuesday when he would move from "words to deeds": "Will they confuse citizens while they fill our streets with criminals unleashed by Morocco and Algeria?" Looking ahead to the 2026 budget, the government has already warned Vox that it will extend the previous ones if they raise their demands, aware that the pre-election climate is already permeating the remainder of the legislature.

A complex position

"The PP's dilemma doesn't have a simple answer," explains political scientist Guillermo Bezzina. "There is evidence, both in Spain and in Europe, that when a major party adopts issues typical of the far right, such as immigration, it strengthens the latter," he asserts. In this sense, he believes that for now, "Vox is winning the game, because if you buy into its framework, you play by its rules."

"The PP is at risk because it is racing Vox on an issue where Santiago Abascal's party is perceived as more competent, and the polls invalidate this strategy, which has led to Vox's growth," remarks political analyst Toni Forners. "The PP has a very big problem because immigration is a primary concern for its potential electorate, who are conservative and not so young," he adds. What is the right strategy for the Popular Party? For political scientist Pau Torres, it is not clear. "There is no consensus in academia on the extent to which Vox's rhetoric is thus validated," he argues. He believes that accepting the debate, on the one hand, "normalizes" anti-immigration rhetoric, but on the other, it can "allow us to capture some voters before they become radicalized." "It's a major dilemma from an electoral strategy perspective and also from an ethical perspective," he concludes. A difficult dilemma to resolve.