The Balearic Islands in 50 years: a postcard that will fade (if things don't change)

PalmWhat will the Balearic Islands be like in 2075? ARA Baleares has consulted experts, and they all share a common message: if decisive and significant measures are not taken to reverse certain trends, the outlook for the islands in 50 years is anything but optimistic. More population, dependence on tourism, political polarization, waste, and territorial destruction. Less housing and basic resources, such as water, while facing the deepening effects of climate change. The Balearic Islands are in a race against time, and there is no guarantee without action.

Demographics

The population will continue to grow thanks to the importation of labor.

The INE's forecasts for 2037 indicate an increase of almost 200,000 inhabitants and a population that would reach 1.5 million in the Balearic Islands. "If the current trend continues, all red lines would be crossed," notes Pere Salvà, emeritus professor of Human Geography at the UIB. Thus, if population growth does not stabilize, the islands could exceed two million inhabitants, a figure with difficult consequences to address. "We would increase from a population density of 200 to 500 inhabitants per square kilometer," he continues. Absorbing the new residents would imply vertical growth, with an accumulation of buildings similar to places like Hong Kong and Singapore. The growth will not be vegetative—he differentiates between births and deaths—but will continue to be fueled by migration, an essential labor force for tourism. "The need for water and waste generation would multiply," he says, noting that this would be an older population. "I'm hopeful that society will wake up and demand action. I hope there's a stabilization," Salvà concludes.

Politics

A society moving towards greater polarization

"Society is moving toward polarization, with individualistic and fragmented demands," notes political scientist Toni Fornés, who believes it is feasible that "the global, transversal, and systematic struggle" will be lost. He also warns that the greater the individualism, the greater the possibility of social confrontation. "It's logical to think that conflict with migrants will increase and that they will be seen as enemies, the causers of their own ills," says Fornés. The tension will be both with low-skilled migration, which "generates competition in the labor market," and with high-income migration, which "strains the housing market and causes an inflationary trend." Other threats such as climate change and the development of artificial intelligence could further accentuate conflicts. "The situation calls for a rethinking of public policies," he adds. He warns that "the extreme right can emerge as an alternative to the injustices of the liberal government and the failure of left-wing forces to manage their problems."

Economy

A subsidized system, which will continue to depend on tourism

If the current economic inertia is projected into the future, we will end up with "an economy completely focused on tourism," says Guillem López Casasnovas, professor of economics at Pompeu Fabra University. "The economy will be subsidized, because there will still be people working between six and eight months a year and collecting unemployment benefits for about four months," he explains. Regarding tourism, "transportation will end up being subsidized to keep the machine running, not just the premises," he adds. "The idea of being fixed at one point to ensure continuity will have disappeared. People will make as much money as they can [throughout the season] and then look for alternative places to live [during the unemployment period]," notes the economist, who emphasizes that this will entail "not getting involved in collective assets, such as neighborhood associations, parents' associations, and political organizations." López Casasnovas calls for political decisions in this regard: "There must be planning." "Supply responds by focusing solely on one sector without taking into account the other variables, which are important on some islands [such as water availability]." The economist points out that containing, maintaining what we have now, "means that the growth rate must be 0%." "3% growth is not a success," he emphasizes.

Territory

The most pernicious consequences of the model will worsen

Solutions based on the liberalization of land, much of it rural, for construction "aggravate the consequences of the model," says GOB spokesperson Margalida Ramis, who highlights "the loss of fertile soil, the push toward speculation, and the neglect of the availability of water resources." According to Ramis, "the dynamic is one of flight forward," while resources "will become increasingly scarce." "It's a very dangerous inertia, because we are already one." continuum "urban, an island city," he continues. "Population attraction policies" to attract labor will further endanger a territory already colonized by tourism. Added to this is the land consumption caused by the expansion of photovoltaic park installations. "It's an industry that will monopolize more land under the pretext of the climate crisis. Energy

Without reducing consumption, solar panels are not a panacea.

Environmental activist and former Minister of the Environment, Margalida Rosselló, emphasizes that completely replacing fossil fuels with renewables is not viable, no matter how much they are considered as an option to maintain energy consumption in the future. She points out that the primary objective of energy companies is "economic profit." "We are heading towards a scenario filled with fossil fuels and still consuming fossil fuels," she says, referring to how difficult it will be for airplanes not to use them, for example. "There will be a brutal dependence, a need to draw energy from wherever it is," she continues, since the arrival of tourists implies increasingly "more energy consumption." "A territory covered in fossil fuels: this is the model they have chosen," she concludes.

Housing

Prices will continue to rise rapidly.

Economist and housing expert Eduard Robsy asserts that, "as long as there is demographic growth and vacation rentals, housing prices will continue to rise." "Unless there is a global crisis that affects the pockets of those who buy now, price increases will accelerate," he insists, criticizing the measures currently being considered that involve more construction. "During the 2008 crisis, when housing was being built like never before in Spain, prices doubled," he says. "These islands won't hold out like this for 50 years straight. We are facing a situation of collapse, of great changes. If not, reality will overtake us," comments Robsy, who believes that "the statistics are already unbearable."

Mobility

A catastrophic scenario in just a decade if nothing is done

"The scenario, not in 50 years, but in 10 years, will be catastrophic: more cars, less untouched land, and a more complicated daily life," notes geographer and mobility expert Pilar Vega, who points to the causes of this situation: "Tourism that continues to grow, with a high degree of motorization and high use; favoring the use of private vehicles; urban planning that encourages the construction of more parking, which in turn encourages car use; and the lack of a cycling and pedestrian network." If we want a less catastrophic future, Vega recommends "compact urban development so that travel is by foot and bicycle; reducing traffic on roads and in ports and airports so as not to consume land for infrastructure, or even for its expansion; and giving priority to pedestrians." In fact, the expert proposes an image of avenues "converted into a magnificent boulevard." "If we want a sustainable scenario that allows the population to live better, transformative measures will have to be implemented," she emphasizes.

Ecosystems

Crops that will become unviable and semi-arid conditions

The impact of climate change will transform the marine and terrestrial ecosystems we know today. "Crop crops will become unviable," says Damià Gomis, professor of Earth Physics at the UIB, noting that "there will be progress in semi-arid conditions" in terms of vegetation. "The pine will endure longer, but the holm oak will increasingly be reduced to areas of permanent shade. Trees that require more water will disappear because the vegetation will adapt to the conditions," he continues. Furthermore, "diseases transmitted by vectors such as mosquitoes, which are increasingly more resistant, will increase." There will be more dengue fever and malaria, for example. According to Gomis, the most worrying aspect of the sea is the posidonia. "If the water is above 28 degrees, the posidonia clumps begin to die," he asserts. This plant "is the basis of the marine ecosystem," and if it diminishes or disappears, the impact would be "very significant." "Sometimes there are surprises: unexpected mutations or adaptations," Gomis points out, recalling that "Posidonia has adapted to the conditions of the eastern Mediterranean." However, "doing so in a thousand years isn't the same as doing so in thirty years," he concludes.

Climate change

Rising temperatures could lead to fewer tourists coming.

Although "softening climate change" is feasible, this doesn't seem like the way forward for meteorologist Agustí Jansà. "If the average increases moderately, the probability of extreme events increases, and when they come, they will be stronger," he recalls, noting that we have already surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius of increase compared to the pre-industrial era. "The future is not rosy," he asserts. "Heat and excess mortality are related, and the water issue will also be complicated. In 50 years, sea levels could rise more than half a meter, and buildings will be in danger," he explains. All of these factors will have consequences for the Islands' main industry: "Tourism could decrease because people won't want to come here to experience the heat, and summers will be more pleasant in their countries," he adds. Jansà doubts that greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced and emphasizes that currently "they are increasing."