The population over 54 years old in the Balearic Islands will grow seven times more than workers
The Islands will gain 43,274 people between 16 and 64 years old in a decade, while the population over 64 years old will increase by 77,362 people
PalmaThe Balearic Islands are facing a demographic transformation marked by a simultaneous increase in the working-age population and a much more accelerated aging process. Between 2030 and 2040, the Islands will gain 4.7% more people between 16 and 64 years old, while the population over 64 years old will grow by 31.6%, almost seven times more. This is data from a study by the Adecco Foundation, prepared based on projections from the National Statistics Institute (INE).
In absolute terms, the potentially active population will go from 920,665 people projected in 2030 to 963,939 in 2040, an increase of 43,274 people. In contrast, those over 64 years old will go from 244,433 to 321,796, that is, 77,362 more people in just one decade.
The Islands, contrary to the rest of the State
The evolution of the Balearic Islands will be different from that of the State as a whole. While in Spain the working-age population will reach its peak in the early 2030s and then begin to gradually decrease, in the Islands it will continue to grow practically throughout the decade. Projections indicate that the number of people between 16 and 64 years old will reach its maximum in 2039, with 964,925 people, before starting a slight decline.
The Adecco Foundation attributes this evolution to the economic dynamism of the Balearic Islands and their ability to attract population. In fact, according to the analysis, the Islands will be the second autonomous community with the highest relative population growth over the next 15 years, only behind the Valencian Community. The weight of sectors such as tourism, hospitality, and services contributes, according to the entity, to making the Archipelago a pole of attraction for the population.
Despite the increase in the working-age population, aging poses a growing challenge for the labor market. People between 50 and 64 years old will represent 32.3% of the working-age population in 2030 and will remain around 32.5% for a good part of the decade. In 2040, they will still account for 32.2%.
This means that approximately one in three potential workers in the Balearic Islands will be over 50 years old. Furthermore, currently, people between 50 and 64 years old are already 13.1% more numerous than those between 20 and 34 years old. This difference will be reduced to 9.8% by 2040, but the older group will continue to be more numerous throughout the analyzed period. The Adecco Foundation warns that the much more intense growth of the population over 64 years old may increase pressure on the availability of workers, hinder the filling of vacancies, and put more pressure on the financial sustainability of social protection systems.
They call for leveraging senior talent
Faced with this scenario, the entity defends the need to take advantage of the talent of older people and facilitate access to the labor market for groups that currently face more obstacles. Among these groups are people with disabilities, who in the Balearic Islands have an activity rate of 35.9%, as well as women at risk of social exclusion, the long-term unemployed, and people with lower qualifications.
The general director of the Adecco Foundation, Francisco Mesonero, considers that inclusion must play a central role in responding to demographic change. In this regard, he defends the need to "retain and update senior talent", reduce the mismatch between the skills of workers and those demanded by companies, and promote migration linked to the needs of the labor market. The challenge, therefore, will not only be to have more working-age population, but to ensure that the Balearic economy can take advantage of this potential in a context where the number of older people will grow at a much higher rate.