The 'Speculation Map' estimates that the rural land rezoning promoted by the PP-Vox will create more than 37,000 homes on virgin land.

PalmThe recent Law on Urgent Actions Aimed at Land Acquisition, approved a few weeks ago by the Balearic Islands Government, will allow the construction of up to 37,432 new homes on rural land on 1,246 hectares of previously protected agricultural and forest land, according to calculations by the platform "Mallorca para vivir, no por" (Mallorca for Living, Not for). This is the automatic reclassification that municipalities will be able to carry out in the so-called Transition Areas (TAs). The figures provided by the entity correspond to a study carried out in seven of the most populated municipalities in Mallorca: Palma, Llucmajor, Manacor, Inca, Marratxí, Calvià, and Alcúdia. Until now, these zones were intended to curb urban sprawl and reserve land for basic infrastructure and facilities. However, the new regulations radically modify this function, allowing construction with densities of up to 225 inhabitants per hectare.

The study promoted by the platform, and coordinated by geographer Gabriel Garcies, quantifies the impact that the Government had not made public until now. According to the work, titled Map of speculation, the potential growth within the AT is 252,810 new residential places, equivalent to a 37% increase in the current population of the affected municipalities.

At the municipal level, Palma is the municipality that would experience the greatest growth, with 634 hectares becoming developable and 26,359 new homes, which would add up to 142,650 new residential spaces and a 33% population increase. Other municipalities would also suffer a significant impact: Marratxí (27,180 spaces), Manacor (24,480), and Calvià (21,240).

The platform's experts warn that the law represents a demographic bomb on an saturated island with resources such as water at their limit. Although the Government defends the law as a tool to increase social housing, the organization points out that it actually represents a gift to large urban developers, without a clear forecast of the environmental, territorial, and demographic consequences.

The study also highlights that these increases are limited to Transition Areas (TA) and do not include other urban and developable land that has not yet been developed, which could further amplify the impact of the regulations.

A controversial regulation

The regulation allows for the direct conversion of rural land into buildable land for strategic residential projects, even in municipalities with more than 20,000 inhabitants or in transition zones between urban and rural land. One of the main new features is that these projects can be promoted without first using up existing developable land, which breaks with the established urban planning philosophy.

In return, developers will have to reserve a portion of the building area for subsidized housing and limited-price housing, while local councils will receive a quota of land to allocate to public housing.

The Prohens Executive maintains that measures like these are "urgent" to alleviate the shortage of affordable housing in the Balearic Islands. The Regional Minister for Territory emphasized that the goal is to mobilize thousands of apartments in a few years and provide legal security for developers who invest in strategic residential projects.

Liberalization, according to environmentalists

The opposition and social and environmental organizations have described the law as a "land liberalization law." The PSIB (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party), MÁS (More than 100), and Unidas Podemos (United We Can) have warned on various occasions that it represents a historic step backward in the protection of rural land and the fight against urban sprawl. Neighborhood associations and environmental groups point out that the measure could degrade the rural landscape, strain water and energy resources, and worsen dependence on the real estate sector.

The Land Acquisition Law has already entered into force, but its practical implementation will depend on town councils approving, through their plenary sessions, whether they truly want to apply the regulation. The most paradigmatic case is that of Inca, which has already clearly stated that it will not seek to transform rural land while other avenues are available. Despite being one of the towns with more than 20,000 inhabitants to which the new Law on Urgent Actions to Obtain Land opens the door to reclassifying transitional areas between urban and rural land, the City Council has decided not to adopt this measure.

The mayor, Virgilio Moreno, and the councilor for Urban Planning, Andreu Caballero, argued that the regulation promoted by the PP and Vox government "wastes territorial planning" and distorts rural land, in addition to jeopardizing the services and the equilibrium of the municipality. For this reason, the City Council has made it clear that it will maintain its own urban planning and will not allow rural land in peripheral areas to be converted to buildable land.

Inca's transition areas total approximately 260 hectares of common rural land. If the law were applied, this space could accommodate up to 19,500 new homes, with a potential capacity for 58,500 additional inhabitants. This figure is especially significant when compared to the city's current population, which is around 36,400 residents.

In the words of the City Council itself, this would entail a disproportionate demographic and urban planning change, with population growth that would almost double the current population and generate unsustainable pressure on public services, infrastructure, and natural resources.

The Government considers the estimates invalid.

The Ministry of Housing, Territory, and Mobility has rejected as valid the estimates of the alleged population increase that Law 4/2025 on urgent actions aimed at obtaining land would entail.

According to the Regional Ministry, these figures "do not reflect reality" because they do not take into account basic issues regarding this possibility that the new Law 4/2025 leaves in the hands of the town councils of municipalities with more than 20,000 inhabitants, under a series of limitations and conditions, such as, mainly that the law "does not imply any automatic reclassification" measure, it would generate affordable housing destined only for citizens residing in the Balearic Islands.

To begin with, they explain that the supposed growth in transition areas would not entail the population growth suggested by these estimates. As they indicate, if any town council were to choose to apply this possibility, what is provided for in the Law for all purposes is that 100% of the homes built in transition areas must be homes with some form of protection regime (publicly protected or limited-price housing) and, therefore, "only for residents of the Islands." In this sense, they recall that Law 4/2025 itself establishes the requirement of five years of residence in the Balearic Islands to be eligible for affordable housing.

On the other hand, they point out that it does not take into account that, in the case of Palma, the City Council has already ruled out building in the transition areas in traditional nuclei of the municipality, and they also do not take into account that the city councils of other municipalities such as Inca and Manacor have publicly stated that they will not build in transition areas in their municipalities. The Ministry also clarifies that the new law "does not convert transition areas into developable land, but rather gives city councils tools so that, within a period of one year, they decide whether or not they want to apply for it, and whether or not to make a specific modification to grow in a specific transition area, but in no case is it an automatic process."

The Law opens the possibility for city councils, in the exercise of their local autonomy, to decide whether they want to open the transition areas, provided for in the territorial plans, for the construction of 100% of housing subject to some protection regime such as general rule.