'Game over' for tourism containment: the Government no longer foresees major anti-saturation measures

PalmThe government will no longer implement any major measures to combat overcrowding until the end of its term. With only one summer remaining before the elections, President Marga Prohens, who just over a year ago promised "bold measures," is currently prioritizing other issues. This has been confirmed to ARA Baleares by sources within the regional government, who justify the decision by arguing that the current trend in tourism is towards less seasonality. However, the figures contradict this position: in 2025, the Balearic Islands received 19 million tourists, 1.2 million more than in 2023. Therefore, the "containment" of tourist flow that the government guaranteed for this term has not been achieved. The PP's about-face, when, spurred by citizen protests, it went from accusing the left of "tourism-phobia" to criticizing "overcrowding," ultimately proved ineffective. The debates on the Pact for Sustainability have not come to fruition and the Executive has not approved any of its flagship proposals: neither the increase in the Sustainable Tourism Tax (ITS, known as the ecotax) nor the tax on rental vehicles.

Although First Vice President Antoni Costa invited the PSIB (Socialist Party of the Balearic Islands) during last Tuesday's plenary session to participate in the debate on the ITS (Tax on Tourist Accommodation) increase scheduled for next week within the Pact for Sustainability, government sources explain that approving this measure before the summer season is not in their plans. In fact, Tourism Minister Jaume Bauzá avoided answering questions from the PSIB during the same parliamentary session. The PSIB was asking if he would pursue any further initiatives to curb overcrowding in the remainder of the legislative term. He simply defended the work done so far, especially regarding the fight against illegal tourist rentals. "We have allocated 25 million euros from the ITS exclusively to combating illegal supply," he said. "We have increased fines by 25%, to 500,000 euros," he explained. "In Ibiza, nearly one million euros in fines have been collected in 2024, an unprecedented figure, and there are more inspectors than ever before." This has been the Executive's main strategy to curb overcrowding and, at the same time, combat rising housing prices. But the Consell de Mallorca has not moved forward, to the point that the island government dismissed The Tourism Councillor, Marcial Rodríguez, for his poor results in this area.

Bauzá also defended the Decree-Law against excessive tourism and the "ban on new tourist accommodations in multi-family dwellings throughout the archipelago," even though the government lifted the moratorium on accommodations imposed by the Pact. He also accused previous administrations of fostering "unbridled growth" in tourism. "The number of tourist accommodations never stopped increasing during their term, from 2015 to 2023," he asserted. However, the government has now opened a new avenue to expand them once again, through the agricultural law, which is currently being processed, and which foresees the creation of up to ten tourist places in each farm

The Executive's argument is that the problem of overcrowding is already "on track," according to knowledgeable sources: "The data tells us there is a change in trend." This is what Costa argued in the plenary session. "Tourist spending grew by 4.7% in 2025, and we expect it to grow by 5.2% in 2026," he explained, and asserted that this increase was concentrated in the "low season, with a 10.2% improvement." "We are making progress in reducing seasonality," he stated. "The peak levels of tourist pressure in June, July, and August decreased for the second consecutive year last year," he emphasized. The Government's anti-overcrowding measures, he said, "are bearing fruit." According to sources within the Government, with this data, the major anti-overcrowding measures were "more necessary last year than they are now." Looking ahead to the coming months, the same sources explain that some measures will be taken to monitor the beaches and prepare for the potential influx of visitors to view the solar eclipse scheduled for August 12. "The meetings of the Sustainability Pacts are held every month, and perhaps more things will come of it," these sources insist, but they do not specify what those might be. Government representatives also did not report any new developments to the sector last week during the International Tourism Fair (Fitur) held in Madrid.

"The president has stated publicly twice that she wants to raise the ITS (Tax on Services), but the proposal never makes it to Parliament," points out Socialist MP Llorenç Pou. The government's first proposed increase failed due to a lack of support from Vox and the PP's refusal to negotiate with the left. Finally, the PSIB (Socialist Party of the Balearic Islands) presented a text almost identical to the PP's during the general policy debate last October. "It wasn't our ultimate goal, but this text at least allowed for a minimum agreement," explains Pou. The PP was forced to accept this agreement, but conditioned its approval on it first being reviewed by the Pact for Sustainability. Although they promised to submit it to this platform before the end of the year, the debate on the measure will not begin until next week. "The government is trying to divert attention," he insists: "They've stalled the increase in the ITS and the tax on car rental companies." "The impression their attitude conveys is that, by bringing their ITS proposal into the general policy debate, we caught them off guard, and now they're looking for ways to get it approved," he points out. "Otherwise, it would already be approved; it's their proposal, and they have the support of the PSIB." While a year ago the Balearic Government had an internal poll indicating that saturation was a major cause of citizen discontent, now the PP has internal surveys showing that this concern is now focused on other issues, as reported by knowledgeable sources at ARA Baleares. Among these are the lack of housing and immigration, an issue that Vox has placed on the agenda and that the PP also wants to champion.

The Pact for Sustainability, lame

The anti-saturation measures announced by Prohens were strain the tourism sectorThe hotel industry, in particular, has been a source of public conflict for the president on several occasions. Under pressure from various stakeholders, the head of the regional government warned that, before approving major changes, she would seek consensus through the Pact for Sustainability, a platform that quickly became ineffective because both left-wing parties and social and cultural organizations abandoned it, denouncing its operation as representing only the interests of non-economic sectors. Furthermore, the debates within the organization—divided into several phases—have dragged on and are now too late for the final tourist season before the elections. "The Pact was initially well-received, but suddenly it lost its capacity to implement serious measures," laments Ivan Murray, PhD in Geography and expert on tourism development, who works closely with the GOB (Balearic Ornithological Group). The researcher believes that, during the meetings, "there was a clear political direction that excluded more socially conscious proposals." As a consequence of this departure of organizations, "the measures that emerge from the Pact are very unambitious." "We won't see an increase in the ITS (Tax on Land) or taxes on rental companies," he predicts. "It's important to remember that all the policies the Government approves are supported by Vox." In this regard, the Executive is currently in open negotiations with the far-right party on various initiatives, including the Agricultural Law and the Coastal Law, and the party has expressed its strong opposition to any tax increases.

"The Pact for Sustainability is the idea factory for the narratives that legitimize neoliberal policies," asserts Macià Blázquez, Professor of Geography at the University of the Balearic Islands (UIB) and a tourism researcher. "Saturation is there, although you could say there's a seasonal distribution that increases the pressure on winter," he explains. Murray also contradicts the government's data that points to deseasonalization. "It's true that tourism is growing off-season, but it continues to increase in summer. Therefore, this isn't a success in the fight against saturation; rather, this increase is due to dynamics, policies, and deseasonalization strategies that have nothing to do with the number of tourists," he explains. Furthermore, he denounces that the government "hasn't done anything serious to promote economic diversification." "The Agrarian Law itself, which is meant to revitalize this sector centered around agriculture, livestock, and fishing, has taken a turn and is no longer geared towards diversification, but rather towards boosting real estate and tourism," he explains.

The FEHM (Madrid Hotel Federation) is boasting about the early start to the season.

Both the Majorca Hotel Business Federation (FEHM) and the Confederation of Business Associations of the Balearic Islands (CAEB) expressed satisfaction with the functioning of the Pact for Sustainability. Both organizations, opposed to the increase in the Tourism Tax (ITS), applauded the deseasonalization of tourism. However, the FEHM also warned the Government in a statement that, in any case, the deseasonalization is due to the efforts of the hotel sector, which over the last decade has worked to increase the quality of establishments. "Reality is one thing, and the political narrative is another," a source close to the federation stated: "The trend had already begun last year, but it wasn't mentioned because it wasn't convenient."

"The start of the season has shifted structurally towards the first quarter of the year," the FEHM pointed out in a statement: "March is consolidating itself as the new month for the start of the season, displacing April as the traditional epicenter of the opening." In this regard, the federation is urging institutions to "activate the complementary offerings this year, without waiting for the high season" (for example, by opening monuments to visitors). It also issues a warning: the increase in tourists is also occurring outside of hotels. "Palma Airport registered 33.8 million passengers in 2015, a 1.5 percent increase, but hotel stays barely grew by 0.9 percent," the statement emphasizes.

In turn, the CAEB, in response to the ARA Baleares, expresses its support for the Pact for Sustainability and affirms that the foundations of the transition agenda underpinning the second phase of the plan (the debate on political proposals) reflect a broad consensus on the direction our production system should take to become more sustainable. These foundations address several objectives: sustainability of the tourism system, preservation of natural resources, quality of life for residents, governance and citizen participation, and adaptation to global challenges. The platform's working groups always include a government director general, a representative from the CAEB, one from PIMEB, one from CCOO, and one from UGT. The entities that withdrew from the pact—the Civil Society Forum, GOB, EAPN, and the Federation of Neighborhood Associations of Palma—are not part of any of these groups, nor are the left-wing parties. The CAEB calls for action to address the labor shortage in the sector, absenteeism, the lack of housing, and mobility issues. Regarding market saturation, the organization calls for a more decisive fight against the underground economy and illegal tourist rentals, more aid for businesses, greater regulatory simplification (the organization applauds the Executive's Simplification Law), and other measures to improve "the productivity of our business sector." Just weeks before the tourism industry is set to restart, representatives of the sector are resuming talks on possible measures that are no longer expected in 2026.