The lessons that Extremadura teaches Prohens' PP

PalmWhat can María Guardiola's Extremadura PP teach Marga Prohens's Balearic Islands PP? The elections in this region have kicked off the new electoral cycle, which will continue in the coming months in Aragon, Castile and León, and Andalusia, and will set the tone for the government's final year and a half. "An absolute majority for Guardiola would have been epic," admits a source within the Balearic government, who emphasizes that such a result would have, incidentally, "undermined" the morale of "the others," a veiled reference to Vox. Prohens, in his tweet congratulating Guardiola, also avoided explicitly mentioning Santiago Abascal's party.Which has more than doubled its results. This is the first lesson the elections have taught the Balearic PP: however large the majority party may be, it cannot get rid of the far right. It is a concern that, as explained by ARA Baleares, has been worrying the president for months.

In this context, the possibility of Prohens calling early elections is fading. "A result like yesterday's doesn't change anyone's mood, except for the PSOE, which is worse off than it thought," the same source points out. Last Sunday, the PP, led by María Guardiola, was the most voted party with 43% of the vote and 29 of the 65 seats, but fell short of an absolute majority (33). However, it did achieve its goal of surpassing the entire left-wing bloc, which gives it breathing room, as it will only need Vox's abstention to govern. In this respect, Guardiola is now in a similar situation to Prohens, who also has more seats than the entire left combined (29 seats compared to 25). Furthermore, the PSOE in Extremadura suffered a historic setback, losing 10 seats (falling from 28 to 18), a loss that Unidas Podemos, despite gaining from 4 to 7 seats, cannot compensate for. Their main problem remains Vox, which, now that it has gone from 5 to 11 seats, has already warned that it will make any agreement costly.

As a prominent figure within the People's Party (PP), Guardiola shares several points in common with Prohens. On the one hand, she has a more moderate approach than other PP leaders, such as Isabel Díaz Ayuso, since coming to power. On the other, she shares a discomfort with forming alliances with Vox. While the Balearic president has had to... balances to curb the attacks of the far right against CatalanDuring the 2023 campaign, Guardiola refused to have anything to do with the PP because of its denial of gender violence, its defense of xenophobic policies, and its attacks against the LGBTQ+ community. However, she was ultimately forced to renege on that promise in order to gain power, compelled by the balance of power and by the PP's national headquarters in Madrid. Extremadura is a historically left-leaning region: the PP's victory this Sunday was only its second win in Extremaduran elections in 43 years. If she wanted to appeal to a broad spectrum of voters and maintain a majority, party sources indicated, Guardiola needed to present herself as a voter-centered option. In fact, among far-right figures, she was referred to as "the red baroness," and Abascal even called her "the PP's Irene Montero." However, Vox's results this Sunday contradict this analysis: Extremadura is no longer a territory with a social majority leaning towards the center-left.

While Guardiola called elections due to the impossibility of passing the community's second budget, Prohens has managed to approve two, despite the ups and downs of her relationship with Vox. The popular island leader has not reached the level of gridlock that Guardiola had to operate with before the elections. The president of the Balearic Islands has managed to maintain some legislative activity –although, lower than that of Francina Armengol's previous governmentsAlthough it had to extend the 2026 budget, the People's Party (PP) ended the year with a parliamentary victory, having persuaded Vox to backtrack and support the decree-law on accelerating projects. Given the results in Extremadura, therefore, the PP maintains the same position it held a few months ago: to cling to power as long as possible and hope that the rise of the far right will be less pronounced in 2027.