The rise of the sovereignist left in Andalusia: an opportunity for MÉS?

PalmaThe spokesperson for MÉS per Mallorca, Lluís Apesteguia, on Monday claimed the results of Endavant Andalusia – it has gone from two to eight seats in the Andalusian elections of May 17 – as proof that the sovereignist left is the one that has "the capacity to grow and to stand up to the right and the far right". In the same vein, he launched a criticism at "the state left-wing forces", such as Sumar, with whom they share a parliamentary group in Congress: "They are more concerned with their survival and maintaining their power quotas than with responding to different situations". Therise of Endavant Andalusia indicates that the wind is also blowing in favor of MÉS?

"Local left-wing parties rooted in the territory, with a more direct communication style, have managed to connect with a very specific segment of the population, and are independent of state political forces such as Podem, EUiA, and Sumar," explains political scientist Guillermo Bezzina. "They are not always sovereigntist left-wing parties, but local ones, established from the territory, like EH Bildu, MÉS, and Endavant Andalusia," he argues. "In the 2023 elections, there was a turning point in the formation of the right-wing political space, because these parties have been steadily gaining ground in all elections," he points out. "There are cases like the BNG and EH Bildu, which practically reach 30% of the vote and are the clear alternative to the current government, and smaller cases, like Aragon and Andalusia, where these forces that already existed have doubled votes and tripled seats," he adds.

Political scientist and professor at Pompeu Fabra University (UPF) Toni Rodón agrees with this analysis. "The case of Endavant Andalusia is very interesting, because it puts Gabriel Rufián's (ERC) proposal to create a single candidacy under tension," he notes. "The discourse of Sumar and Podem was very focused on Madrid and its surroundings, and it was difficult for it to grow in the medium term," he continues. "A consequence of the majority that sustains Pedro Sánchez's government is that it was previously believed that there should be two or three parties in Congress, while Sánchez's legislatures have shown that it is possible to govern with many," the expert concludes.

The particularities of MÉS

However, MÉS presents particularities in the Islands. On the one hand, because it has a larger electoral base than Endavant Andalusia from the outset. In 2023, it obtained 8.3% of the votes, while the Andalusian party led by José Ignacio García has achieved 9.6% of the scrutiny, a significant increase compared to 2022 (4.58%). "For García it is a very important growth, while for MÉS it is a result close to its electoral floor," points out Bezzina.

In the same vein, the political context is also different. "Although the general context would favor the growth of MÉS, it is also a party that has been in government for eight years and carries a penalty," explains the political scientist. "It has been a pact-maker, it has an institutional trajectory, and this differentiates it from other forces that have not governed, such as EH Bildu, or have done so for a long time, such as the BNG, Endavant Andalusia, and the Aragonese Regional Government, which carry out a double opposition to both the right and the rest of the state left," he explains. In his opinion, MÉS now faces the challenge of "gathering this political discontent of progressive people who stayed home in the last elections".

For his part, political scientist Julián Claramunt believes that "the failure of the state left-wing space (Podem and Sumar) has left an orphaned electorate that it seems certain left-wing nationalist candidacies are capable of taking advantage of." Is MÉS in a position to be one? "At certain times it has shown a willingness to be, but my analysis is that it has lacked the courage to send a seductive message to an electorate that does not care about its traditional issues," he opines. "The party's first-ever deputy was a window of opportunity that is not being properly exploited," he says.

In fact, MÉS chose to run in the Congress in coalition with Sumar in 2023. The doubt that arises at this moment of distancing between the sovereignist and the state left is whether it should repeat the formula. For now, the party has not commented on this matter. "History tells us that the only option MÉS has to get a deputy in Congress is by repeating the formula," considers Claramunt. "It is practically certain that they would not obtain it alone," he concludes.