Living on a mitre

A few years ago I read an article by New York Times in which one of the most common mistakes in relationships was analyzed: combating emotional distress rationally. The article emphasized the obvious error: emotions don't listen to reason, even if their causes may be real, and trying to soothe certain anxieties with meticulous arguments is as absurd as saying "but I love you" when you're doing the math to see if you can afford a second mortgage.

What surprised and caught my attention about the article wasn't just the implicit advice—that you can shove phrases like "you're exaggerating the problem" or "try to calm down" up your ass—but that it was yet another reminder that humans are far less rational beings with a tendency to overestimate our own intelligence.

I remembered the article while reading The Book of Biases (Godot Editions, 2025) by Ricardo Romero, a brief and entertaining summary of all those mechanisms that cause our brains to continually deceive us. And while reading the book, I've been thinking especially about the current political situation and how, from a certain segment of the left, they try to quell concerns that are, basically, pure bias, using data and arguments. But in some ways, it's a predictable and understandable bias, a manufacturing defect, which we would do well to put into perspective.

A clear example of this is taxes, for instance. They can tell us with all sorts of graphs and elaborate spreadsheets that most of us receive more from the State than we pay in public services, from healthcare to public schools, including public transportation or, quite simply, roads. But, on the other hand, everyone feels that they are being squeezed dry with taxes and that it's not right, especially considering that this money is being blatantly misappropriated... The narrative here, of course, is as effective as it is false, but it doesn't matter. We're not talking about rational thought, but pure natural instinct and our habitual loss aversion. That's why it's also absolutely useless to be told repeatedly that squatting is a relatively minor problem compared to how speculation and purchases by vulture funds and foreign buyers affect house prices. It's because we can all empathize with the image of the small homeowner whose house has been occupied, because many of us see the potential gains from market intervention as very remote.

In this sense, the rise of the far right doesn't surprise me at all, because no one knows better than they do how to push the buttons on our most irrational instincts and fears. It doesn't matter that it's obvious they and their followers have caused much of the world's turmoil: they're experts at rocking the boat and then selling you the life preserver, even if it's made of cardboard, and you'll probably be the first one devoured by the sharks. In the end, if history teaches us anything, it's that there will always be more people willing to collaborate with the executioners than those who do the math and see that they are few and we are many. Ah, the shadow of the Batavia always returns.