The PSC shoots up and Junts sinks in the latest CEO poll

BarcelonaIt has won the last three elections in Catalonia, but the doors of the Generalitat remain closed to the PSC. At least until the next Catalan elections. The socialists are soaring in the polls and if elections were held today in Parliament, Salvador Illa would clearly win with between 39 and 45 seats, ahead of ERC (29-34) and Junts (19-24), who have been losing ground as the legislature has progressed. The results are collected by the Barometer of the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO), which was made public today, the day after Pedro Sánchez's investiture, although the polls were conducted a few weeks ago, before the PSOE's agreements with ERC and Junts. the day after Pedro Sánchez's investiture, even though the polls were conducted a few weeks ago, before the PSOE's agreements with ERC and Junts. In the July poll, the PSC was also first, but with an estimate of 31-37 seats, practically tied with Esquerra, which obtained between 31 and 36.

The party led by Carles Puigdemont is the one that suffers most from the effect of July 23rd and, according to the CEO, has fallen more than 3 points in vote estimation (in July the CEO predicted between 25 and 30 deputies for them). It remains to be seen what effect the pact they signed a few days ago will have to achieve amnesty and initiate a negotiation table with the Spanish government in exchange for investing Sánchez.

The picture emerges amidst ongoing negotiations in Madrid and with the results of the general elections, in which the PSC won convincingly, leading the CEO's director, Jordi Muñoz, to warn of a possible "honeymoon" effect, the usual rise in polls in the weeks and months following elections for winning parties. In fact, the comuns and the PP, who came second and third in votes on July 23rd, also fare very well in the poll.

One in five people who abstained in the Catalan elections of 2021 would now vote for the socialists, and this is the main reason for the PSC's growth, which manages to mobilize its usual voters and gain new ones from abstention. The socialists' growth is significant not only because it would widen the lead in first place, but also because, in addition, Illa would have options to be invested president. In the survey, the independentists lose their absolute majority in Parliament and, in the best-case scenario, would get 66 seats (2 seats short of the necessary 68), with CUP also declining (4-8 deputies).

To reach the Palau de la Generalitat, however, Illa would need either a pact with one of the two main pro-independence parties or to convince the rest of the parliamentary spectrum. The PP would be the fourth force in Parliament, consolidating its upward trend for months and would reach 12-17 deputies when today it only has 3. If the PP rises, the communication channels mean that Vox and Cs fall: the orange party would disappear from the Catalan chamber while the far-right would drop from the 11 deputies it currently has to 6-9. As for the commons, they also have an upward trend that they have carried since the last Spanish elections and would achieve between 10 and 14 seats when today they only have 8.

A 60% in favor of the amnesty law

The respondents did not know the details of the amnesty law that the PSOE finally registered last week in the Congress of Deputies, but they did know that it was the main point of negotiation for the investiture. Thus, 60% of them are in favor of an amnesty law that prevents people with pending trials for their involvement in the 1-O from being prosecuted. 31% are against it. By parties, the most divided voters are those of the PSC, although there is a majority in favor of amnesty: 49% are in favor and 41% are against (10% do not know or do not answer). Among pro-independence voters, 94% are in favor, even though there is also a current that considers amnesty to be a surrender.

On the other hand, Vox voters are the ones who most vehemently reject amnesty (81%) and rejection percentages are also high among PP (75%) and Cs (59%) voters. Precisely the representatives of these parties are the ones who have organized street mobilizations for citizens to express themselves against amnesty.