The PSC would win in Catalonia on July 23 and could take up to 10 deputies from the PP, according to the ARA survey
ERC retreats but stays ahead of Junts, Sumar and the PP
BarcelonaThe electoral cycle is tinged with blue. The PP has advanced strongly everywhere, but especially in Andalusia, in the Valencian Country and also in Madrid, in both regional and municipal elections. Now it hopes to do the same in the general elections on July 23, as all polls predict, including the CIS poll. They are, along with Catalonia, the key territories to pave the way to Moncloa. For this reason, it is in the Principality where the socialists are risking a good part of their credit. Pedro Sánchez knows that the differential he achieves with the PP in Catalonia could end up being decisive, especially if he loses momentum in other autonomies. The PSC will win the elections by a wide margin, according to the poll that the Opinòmetre Institute has conducted for ARA. With a range of between 14 and 16 deputies, the socialists will return to the first position fifteen years later. And what will be the differential with the PP? The popular party, also on the rise, capturing the majority of Cs' vote, would be left with between 5 and 7 deputies in the Spanish Congress.
That is to say, +7 in the worst-case scenario for the PSC and +11 in the best. What implications could this have? The PSC has achieved an advantage of 10 or more deputies compared to the PP on nine occasions: all except one – the arrival of José María Aznar to power in 1996 – ended with a socialist president in Moncloa. The four times the PP narrowed the gap to under 10 served for Aznar and Mariano Rajoy to become presidents. This Sunday you will have the second installment of the poll with the Spanish hemicycle, where you can see who makes the most of the results in Catalonia.
However, as is usual, the result of the PSOE and the PP will not be enough to know who will form the government. The pro-independence parties have already warned Sánchez – their only potential ally – that they will raise the price of a possible investiture. And if the current president maintains options after July 23rd, he will have no choice but to talk to them. ERC will continue to have a good handful of deputies: the Opinòmetre poll places them with between 9 and 11, slightly above what the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió predicted a few days ago. the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió. Despite losing the first position achieved four years ago, two weeks before the elections, the Republicans continue to be ahead of Junts, although the difference is narrowing: Míriam Nogueras's party would remain the third force, mirroring the 2019 results with a range of between 7 and 9 deputies. And the other pro-independence party, the CUP, keeps the doors of Congress open: they could achieve one or even revalidate the two they have had in the lower house until now.
The commons, under the Sumar brand, run the risk of losing ground to the PSOE, but would hold on with between 6 and 8 seats, ahead of the PP's natural partner, a Vox that would consolidate the two seats from 2019 and could add one more.
A cruel dual vote for the pro-independence parties
that the majority of its voters, according to the survey, would have endorsedBut pro-independence supporters would also suffer. ERC could cede around 9% of votes to PSC and Junts and the CUP around 5%. The drain of CUP voters, however, would be caused by defections to Sumar, as it would capitalize on more than 20% of the CUP's votes in the Catalan elections. Esquerra would also fail to stem the flow of voters to Junts, which could be around 8%. And the problem for Junts supporters could come through abstention because, currently, they have the most long-time voters who have decided not to participate in 23-J. In any case, turnout is expected to be high again, despite it being an election in the middle of summer, and could be between 65% and 70%, at the same level as 10-N.
The burden of the useful vote means that the pro-independence vote as a whole is declining, as while in 2019 it obtained 42.9% of the vote, now, according to the survey, it would only achieve 35.5%. Be that as it may, the idea of a unitary list has not even been debated this time, which the majority of its voters, according to the survey, would have endorsed.
How do Catalan politicians fare in Spain?
In this Sunday's edition, you will be able to grasp, among many other things, the average rating of candidates in the Spanish elections. Taking advantage of the fact that we were conducting a survey across the entire State, however, we also wanted to ask about the score of some of the main Catalan politicians, to see if there are significant differences. For example, what do Spaniards think of the President of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès? To begin with, 60% of citizens know him (90% in Catalonia) and they rate him more negatively: the average among Catalans is 4, and in contrast, the average in Spain is 2.7. If we exclude Catalonia, the score falls even lower, to 2.3.
It is more or less the same with the president of ERC, Oriol Junqueras (4.3 in Catalonia; 2.6 in the State and 2.2 excluding Catalans from the equation), and more intensely with the former president of the Government Carles Puigdemont. In Catalonia, Puigdemont receives a 4 like Aragonès, but, on the other hand, it drops to 1.8 (1.3 without counting Catalans) when Spaniards are asked. Puigdemont is also known by almost 90% of the citizens of the State.
The head of the opposition, Salvador Illa, and the former mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau, do not have the same problem. Both receive the same average score no matter who is asked (4 in the case of the first secretary of the PSC and 3.4 in that of the leader of the commons). It is evident that being an independentist has image costs when leaving Catalonia.
- The survey was conducted by the Institut Opiniòmetre through a multi-channel interview (CATI + CAWI), with 32% of the sample carried out using the telephone methodology. 1,521 surveys were conducted, 502 of which were in Catalonia, with individuals over 18 years of age with Spanish nationality. Data was collected between June 27 and July 4, 2023. For a confidence level of 95.5%, and P = Q = 50%, the margin of error is ±2.51% for the entire sample in Spain and ±4.37 for Catal.