Flu cases spike in just a few days, raising concerns ahead of Christmas

PalmThe Balearic Islands have registered a flu rate of 64.9 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the latest available data (week of December 1-7), still below the weighted national rate of 164.6 cases/100,000, but with a clear upward trend compared to the previous week, when the figure was 3.3. The impact of the Immaculate Conception long weekend and social and family gatherings has not yet been reflected. This increase comes within a flu season that has started four weeks earlier than usual and has led the region to enter epidemic phase 1 last week, as the threshold is 36 cases/100,000, a level already exceeded several days ago. This situation has not occurred for years and places the Balearic Islands in a scenario of more accelerated virus spread, although the level of transmission is still considered moderate.

Given this context, health authorities have reinforced recommendations for flu vaccination, especially for at-risk groups such as people over 65 and healthcare professionals, and urge people with respiratory symptoms or in vulnerable settings to wear masks. They also reiterate the importance of basic measures such as hand hygiene, ventilation, and social distancing. The Government anticipates that the peak of the epidemic may coincide with the Christmas holidays, placing the Canary Islands in Stage I of the protocol of recommendations for the control of respiratory diseases, similar to the rest of Spain.

Advanced flu

"The flu will reach its peak at Christmas," states Joan Carles March, a professor at the Andalusian School of Public Health. "When people say we're better off than the rest of Spain, that's not correct. The comparison should be made with how the Balearic Islands were a year ago," he continues. "The curve will steepen, and there will probably be a surge of cases in the week between Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve," which will be reflected in the strain on healthcare services. The 'good news' is that in other years the epidemic curve began to decline in mid-February; this year, if everything goes ahead, it will do so sooner, because the duration of the epidemic is usually the same. What is already happening in Spain—and which could be repeated in the Balearic Islands in the coming weeks—is not an isolated phenomenon. Several countries in the Northern Hemisphere are also registering a clear rise in the seasonal flu epidemic curve. In Europe, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) has issued an emergency report urging member states to accelerate flu vaccination programs in light of the evolving flu season. The agency warns of a potential antigenic mismatch between the A(H3N2) virus included in the vaccine and the K subvariant, which is now circulating more widely. Despite this mismatch, experts insist that the vaccine continues to protect against severe forms of the disease. In this context, healthcare services fear that the surge in cases could significantly strain healthcare capacity in the coming weeks.

The expert from Mallorca points out that the only clear cause explaining the spread of the flu is the K subvariant and that, to a lesser extent, the fact that this year has been colder and rainier than in previous years may have played a role, creating a more favorable environment for the pathogen. "Normally, these viruses have several subvariants. What has been found now is a subvariant that makes the vaccines less effective than before. The vaccine had no problem with previous subvariants, but it's not a perfect fit with this one. It reduces the number of severe cases, but it doesn't have maximum efficacy," he explains. Regarding vaccination, he adds, "Getting vaccinated is a good decision: if you get the flu, it reduces the possibility of problems and complications. The key is vaccination, and it would be a good idea for it to be universal."