Salvador Illa (PSC) would win the elections but the independence movement would revalidate the majority, according to a survey by Crónica Global

• Survey from 'La Vanguardia'
• The forecasts of all the surveys
• The CEO survey
• Polls by 'El Periódico', 'El Español' and 'La Razón'

Salvador Illa continues to lead the polls for the 12-M elections. According to the latest survey, published by Crónica Global, the socialists would improve their 2021 results and would secure 38 deputies – they currently have 33. However, Illa could once again emerge as the winner at the polls without reaching the Generalitat. According to the survey, pro-independence parties would maintain their majority with 69 seats, with Junts (33 deputies) ahead of Esquerra (28 deputies) and the CUP (8 deputies), a sum that could open the door to the investiture of former president Carles Puigdemont. Another possible governing majority would involve a tripartite government of socialists, republicans, and commons, who would secure five deputies in Parliament. Nevertheless, Esquerra has already publicly refused to make Illa president of the Generalitat.

The PP, with Alejandro Fernández now confirmed as their candidate, would quadruple its results and go from 3 to 12 deputies, facing a collapsed Cs that would not manage to enter the Catalan chamber. Vox would maintain 11 deputies and Aliança Catalana would be left out of Parliament, according to the survey.

Survey from 'La Vanguardia'

The poll by La Vanguardiaof March 24predicted that the PSC would achieve 41 deputies and remain well above Junts and Esquerra, who would be vying for second place. In this poll, Carles Puigdemont's party gains ground and overtakes the Republicans: Junts would obtain 29 seats and ERC 26. The survey was conducted between March 16 and 20, when the President of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, had already announced the early election, but Puigdemont had not yet officially announced his candidacy, although it was taken for granted that he would make the move.

, although it was taken for granted that he would make the move.

The PP would become the fourth parliamentary force, with 15 seats, and would surpass Vox, which would be left with 8 deputies. The populars would take the largest share of Citizens' pie, which would be left out of Parliament. The commons, after their no to the budgets, would gain a deputy and would have 9. The poll does not predict that any of the parties of the fourth independentist space, such as Alhora, by Clara Ponsatí and Jordi Graupera, or Aliança Catalana, by Sílvia Orriols, would enter the Catalan chamber.

On Saturday, March 23, El Mundo published a poll in which it also gave victory to the PSC (39-41), but the second position was taken by Esquerra (27-28) ahead of Junts (26-29), because the republicans surpassed the Junts in percentage of vote (18.4% to 17.8% respectively). The PP also became the fourth force (13-15) and was followed by the commons (9-10), Vox (9) and the CUP (7). Citizens did not manage to stay in Parliament.

The CEO's survey

The results of the survey from La Vanguardia do not differ much from the latest poll by the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO), even though the poll was conducted before Aragonès announced the early election. The CEO also predicted a clear victory for Salvador Illa (35-42), and behind him, ERC and Junts were vying for second place. In this case, the Republicans (26-32) were ahead of Junts (24-29), and only with the CUP (7-10) could independence reach an absolute majority. In fourth place, the CEO foresaw a triple tie between the PP (9-13), Vox (9-13), and the Commons (8-13). Citizens would also be out of Parliament, according to the CEO.

Polls from 'El Periódico', 'El Español' and 'La Razón'

A few days after Aragonès announced the elections of May 12, some media outlets already published the first polls. In all of them, the constant that still holds today was present: that the PSC wins the elections and that the pro-independence bloc could lose its absolute majority. El Español and La Razón indicated that Salvador Illa would achieve a clear victory, between 36 and 42 seats, and that Junts would be the one to secure second place ahead of ERC. In the same vein, El Periódico depicted the electoral map, which also gave Junts second place, behind the PSC and ahead of ERC. This poll awarded between 35 and 38 seats to the PSC, while Junts and ERC could tie in a range of between 29 and 32 deputies, although Junts would slightly outperform the Republicans in vote percentage (18.5% to 18% respectively).

In the three surveys, the PP also positioned itself as the fourth force in Parliament, with between 12 and 14 seats, and surpassed Vox, which obtained a range of between 7 and 11 deputies. El Español and La Razón predicted a decline for the comuns, who would be left with 5-6 deputies (they currently have 8), as would the CUP, which would go from its current 9 deputies to 4-7. El Periódico, on the other hand, forecasted a tie between the CUP and the comuns with a range of between 7 and 9 parliamentarians, and is the only poll that predicts that Aliança Catalana could enter Parliament with 3 deputies. In all three surveys, Ciutadans would be left out of the Catalan chamber.