Should Prohens recalculate his strategy to counterprogram Abascal?

PalmIn recent months, the People's Party (PP) has pursued a strategy to compete with Vox: counterprogramming. When Santiago Abascal's party railed against the Islamic veil, the PP rejected their initiative only to later present its own on the burka and niqab. If the far right demanded more Spanish in schools, the PP voted against it to advance a similar legislative proposal, albeit one with little practical effect. While Vox demanded mass deportations of immigrants, President Marga Prohens called for greater border control and appointed a National Police officer as Director General of Immigration. But the results in Aragon call this tactic into question. Vox doubled its vote share, while the PP suffered losses. Is it time to recalculate?

“They copy our rhetoric, but with a watered-down version,” complains a Vox source in the Balearic Islands. “They present proposals similar to ours on immigration, others regarding equal pay for the state security forces…,” the source continues: “They want to dress like Vox, but they aren’t, and people vote for the real thing.” Another source within the party says they “wish they were in the PP’s shoes”: “We’re growing no matter what they do.” This is the trend: Vox has gone from 5 to 11 seats in Extremadura and from 7 to 14 in Aragon. In each region, the PP’s lead candidate took a different approach: while María Guardiola in Extremadura presented a moderate profile, in Aragon Jorge Azcón tried to attract Vox voters. For example, by having the far-right agitator Vito Quiles attend the campaign closing event.

"The PP is figuring out how to act with a new partner with whom it hasn't yet normalized agreements," explains political analyst Toni Fornés: "They're going around in circles." He warns that competing for Vox's undecided voters presents a problem: "The majority party adopts the mindset of the minority party, but Vox is perceived as the most competent on these issues." According to the analyst, "it has been demonstrated throughout Europe that when the Christian Democratic right has followed this strategy, the radical right has been strengthened." Conversely, he believes the PP should champion issues like taxation and emphasize itself as a party "with a sense of national responsibility," avoiding direct confrontation with the Spanish government.

A dead end

Prohens has opted for a middle ground. While she competes with Vox to capitalize on the anti-immigration discourse and constantly attacks Spanish President Pedro Sánchez, she has maintained an institutional profile and has continued to meet with him. She also championed the administrative simplification law and the reductions in regional taxes. According to sources within the Balearic Government, the key to curbing immigration—both in the Balearic Islands and at the national level—lies in "establishing a distinct profile and effective governance." So why are they competing with the far right over the anti-immigration narrative? "It's not a reaction to Vox, but to public concern, which we must address," this source explains. In the long run, the People's Party hopes that Vox will follow the same path as Unides Podem and Ciutadans: "The former is nothing but a shell; and the latter has vanished."

On the other hand, a source from Prohens' team believes that Vox will not grow as much in the Balearic Islands as it did in Aragon: "Their biggest surge was in 2023, when they went from three to eight seats." The far-right party's spokesperson in the Balearic Parliament, Manuela Cañadas, herself admitted that internal polls give them a maximum of 12 seats. But the number of seats isn't the most important thing: Vox's current strategy is to enter all regional governments and make the PP pay dearly for any agreements they make. Therefore, Prohens would find it difficult to replicate the 2023 formula and govern with Vox's external support. Furthermore, the far-right party is aiming for the Ministry of Education, which would erase the regionalist and moderate stance on linguistic issues that the Balearic PP is working hard to emphasize.

"If Vox enters the other regional governments, the Balearic PP will be in a rather weak position," notes political scientist Guillermo Bezzina. "The empirical evidence is that the PP's strategy to contain Vox isn't working," the expert continues: "Prohens won't be tempted to call early elections." In this sense, he believes that in the year or so remaining until the next elections, she will have to "define her own identity," as Isabel Díaz Ayuso and Juanma Moreno did in Andalusia. "She's trying," he asserts.