The risk of a regional war in West Africa is growing.

BOBO-DIOULASSO (BURKINA FASO)Niger expects a military response from Nigeria, Benin, Ivory Coast and Senegal after the Nigerien military junta ignored the ECOWAS ultimatum (Economic Community of West African States) to "restore constitutional order" and release President Mohamed Bazoum. The deadline was 11 p.m. last Sunday, and this group of governments had warned that they would take military action to restore order in the Sahel country.

On Sunday, just minutes before the deadline set by ECOWAS, the spokesman for the Nigerien military junta, Amadou Abdramane, said in a televised address that the airspace was closed "until further notice" due to "the threat of military intervention by a neighboring country" in its territory. He also stated that "any attempt to violate the airspace would be met with a forceful and immediate response." Indeed, the real-time flight tracking website Flightradar24 showed various flights changing course, and currently no aircraft are flying over Nigerian airspace. Many airlines, such as Air France, have suspended most flights to the Sahel.

Furthermore, the local investigative media outlet The Niger Event It was announced that the army had "reinforced its ground positions on the border with Benin and Nigeria." This statement contradicts reports from other media outlets, which claim that it was Nigeria that carried out these military movements. In any case, the Nigerien junta has not commented on the matter.

The "general psychosis," as one Nigerien described the current situation, was evident after ECOWAS Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security, Abdel-Fatau Musah, said last Friday that military intervention was ready and that the only question was "how and when the force would be deployed." ECOWAS will meet again this Thursday in Abuja, the capital of Nigeria.

Game of new alliances

Meanwhile, Bola Tinubu, the president-elect of Nigeria and also of ECOWAS – a rotating position among member states – has met at the presidential palace in Abuja with the governors of the northern regions that share a border with Niger.r to seek alliances in case of ground intervention and deploy its troops along the 1,500-kilometer border. However, Tinubu does not have the support of the Nigerian Senate, which, according to the Constitution itself, must accept military intervention and will only do so if it sees "an imminent threat to national security."

Meanwhile, a delegation from the military juntas of Mali and Burkina Faso, led by former Malian Prime Minister Abdoulaye Maïga, has traveled to Niamey to support the coup leaders. The three countries have formed part of a new regional bloc in West Africa since Mali and Burkina Faso declared that any attack on Niger would be considered a "declaration of war on their country."

The Nigerien coup leaders remain in power, and the still-arrested president, Mohamed Bazoum, has not signed his resignation. According to several media outlets, a delegation headed by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland will lead negotiations in the coming days between the military junta and ECOWAS in search of a diplomatic solution to the conflict and to avert a regional war. The United States maintains two military bases in Niger for counterterrorism purposes.

Great international echo

The coup in Niger led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani on July 26 has reached a significant international dimension, unlike recent coups in the Sahel region such as Mali in 2021 or Burkina Faso, which experienced two in 2022. In fact, the internal events in Niger are reminiscent of the Burs coup—the popular uprising against the coup leaders and the rise of anti-French sentiment—but in a shorter period of time.

Niger It was the last ally of the West in the Sahel region, a desert strip that crosses the African continent from the Atlantic to the Red Sea and divides Africa between desert and savanna.

Meanwhile, the population has begun to feel the consequences of the coup since Nigeria cut off the electricity supply in Niger. "They cut off our electricity so it can be available in another neighborhood, until three or four hours later the power comes back on," said a Nigerien shopkeeper in Niamey.