The pre-election dance begins in the Balearic Islands: parties are already positioning themselves for 2027
Thirteen months remain until the regional elections and all Balearic parties are already in full electoral campaign mode or, failing that, will be very soon.
The PSOE will be the one to bring the big news. Until just over a year ago, all its leaders took it for granted that Francina Armengol would repeat as candidate for president to 'recover' the Govern. Was it an imposture or did they really believe it? We cannot know. What we do know now is that the inquera gave the order some time ago to start preparing her replacement – subject to the approval of Pedro Sánchez, because no one is encouraged in the party if not with the permission of the great leader, there is no longer any of that 'more PSIB than not PSOE' from Francesc Antich – because she wants to continue as a deputy in Congress, as Nekane Domblás's information in Última Hora assured on February 26. The replacement will be Rosario Sánchez, Secretary of State for Tourism, who has the typical transition profile for when it is known that the elections will be lost.
In the PP, despite the growing pressure from Vox, they are sure that Marga Prohens will repeat in office. In fact, she has imposed long-term government management, beyond 2027 and 2031. For example: announcements of future infrastructure works. The party's congress for May 23, exactly one year before the elections, will be the leader's launch towards a second term.
The far-right is not preparing, but it doesn't need to; it's enough for its national headquarters to do so. The far-left, much the same, waiting to see what orders come from Madrid; given what it has done in Andalusia, uniting after dedicating itself to making a fool of itself in Extremadura, Aragon, and Castilla y León with the expected logical result, it is to be supposed that it will forge the umpteenth version of the unity of the left from the PSOE that they don't want, but to which they are condemned.
And then there's localism, the two MÉS and Pi-Coalition for Mallorca. The Menorcans will do what they always do. It is an unusual party that has such an identified target that it almost knows all its voters by name and surname. One of the leaders told me so a few years ago, exaggerating only a little. And he added that thanks to this precise knowledge, "we don't need to run big campaigns." The proof is that it spends much less than it receives from the sum of public money and the fees from officials and militants, and it is the only party in the democratic world that increases its bank account every year. It is not surprising that it has such a placid life. Now it is focusing on the polls, counting voters and trying to attract others in sufficient numbers to subtract the 3,900 that separate it from the PSOE, to become the second insular force. Difficult, but not impossible.
Mallorcan autochthonism is more entangled. MÁS wants to win the space apart from the PSOE from the far-left, at least in the regional elections. To achieve this, it has cornered nationalism as a distinctive mark, beyond the obligatory sovereignist rhetoric that obliges nothing. An inevitable change due to the autochthonist decline: this vote has gone from 25% in 1983 to 15% in 2023, ten percentage points less, a decrease of 40%. Almost nothing. In this context – increasingly hostile – anyone dedicates themselves to betting exclusively or above all on nationalism, as was the distinctive mark in the time of the PSM, although it was also progressive and claimed to be environmentalist. So, whether MÁS's shift is liked or not, it has been the only reasonable response to the disappearance of the niche of nationalist faithful.
However, those from MÁS are aware of the danger to their image – and public opinion – that the neo Pi could pose to them among the most ultra circles of nationalism who have never voted for PSM-MÁS. The most logical thing would be to ignore it. But their traditional psychological weakness makes them fear more than the devil being accused of being Spanish, which is what the aforementioned Coalition will try to sell. So, it is foreseeable that MÁS will heat up the sovereignist declaration a little to cover that flank.
Regarding said Coalition, at the end of November the new brand was presented and five months later it continues without giving the signs of agitation that a party should show a year before the polls, if it wants to achieve seats from almost nothing. The 0.6% of voting intention that the survey commissioned by MÁS for the Palma City Council gives it –more or less 2.5% in all of Mallorca–, is perhaps too little –to tell the truth, the poll does not inspire much confidence because it assures that the PP will lose a quarter of the vote from 2023– but it is true that if compared to the great public effort that El Pi made a year before the 2015 polls –with a charismatic frontrunner, the formation structured everywhere, social and media support...– the current candidacy seems far from the good electoral standing of the one back then.
