Pre-campaign atmosphere with the possibility of bringing forward elections up their sleeve

PalmMarga Prohens' third year in office beIt's a pre-campaign period. December has already set the tone for 2026 with the elections in Extremadura, on the one hand, and the MÉS congress for Mallorca, on the other, because the opposition is also preparing for the 2027 elections. The president has ruled out, for now, the possibility of bringing forward elections in the Balearic Islands, despite tensions with Vox's partners. But that scenario could change depending on the results of the elections in Aragon and Andalusia, which will serve to gauge the PP's chances. It will also depend on the needs of the party's national leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who is looking for the opportune moment to end the 'Sanchismo' (the influence of Pedro Sánchez) and is counting on the regional leaders as a weapon.

The results in Extremadura have reinforced the government's intention to serve out its term, even if it means using an extended budget. Although the popular María Guardiola swept aside the PSOE and the PP emerged as the leading party, Vox's resounding improvement, gaining 40,000 more votes than two years ago, discourages early elections in the Canary Islands. However weakened the left may be, all indications are that Prohens will be unable to shake off the far right, which has dictated the political tone of the legislature and continues to surge in the polls. In any case, Extremadura has served as the starting gun for the regional elections scheduled for the first quarter of 2026 in Aragon, Castile and León, and Andalusia.

"In all the regions governed by the PP, there is a debate about whether or not to hold early elections," says political scientist Guillermo Bezzina. "The word for 2026 in the Canary Islands will be 'instability,'" he continues. "Extremadura is going one way, while Andalusia, Galicia, and Madrid are also going theirs. This creates a very disparate electoral calendar." For now, Bezzina doesn't see an early election as possible in the Balearic Islands. "We're going to continue with this instability, with this single-party government, which will find it increasingly difficult to implement its agenda." In this regard, he points out that the polls place Vox "in a very favorable position," while he prescribes "ideological rearmament" for the left to confront it. Referring to the PSIB, Más per Mallorca, Más per Menorca, and Unidas Podemos, he believes they have spent two years in a "journey through the desert," lacking strong candidates. "They must try to go into the elections with a minimum level of competition," he emphasizes. The atmosphere, he concludes, will be that of a pre-election campaign, "as it has been from the very first minute of this legislature."

The correlation between the PP and Vox, key

For his part, political scientist Julián Claramunt believes that "everything that might happen in 2026, whether it be early elections or agreements, will be determined by a key element: the balance of power between the PP and Vox." "If Vox continues to gain significant ground and the PP fails to secure absolute majorities, Vox will have more reason to confront Prohens, and she will have to decide whether or not to call elections," he argues. Therefore, everything will depend on "how the president interprets Vox's strength." In this sense, she could choose to remain in government and "wear down Vox," or she could call elections to halt its growth at the polls if she detects that it is increasingly gaining ground in the polls. "If Vox senses weakness and is actively trying to undermine her, it could force a decision, whereas if the PP manages to perform well in the regional elections and even recover ground in the polls, she will take the opposite approach," he concludes.

"Prohens will hold"

Political analyst Toni Fornés predicts that "Prohens will hold on," despite the winds of early elections blowing from the mainland. "Her budget, although extended, is relatively recent, passing several laws in a context of crisis and uncertainty," he continues. In the last plenary session of the year, the Executive secured Vox's support for the Decree-Law on accelerating projects, which will allow the import of waste from Ibiza. "Despite the distancing from Vox, there doesn't seem to be such a great risk of gridlock, as long as there isn't an early Spanish election. That could increase polarization," he comments.

Fornés elaborates on the concept of 'polarization' – a process in which public opinion tends to divide into opposing ideological extremes. In his view, this is what conditions and "contaminates the political debate." "This will lead to elections every other Sunday for the next six months, in which extremist forces will gain a significant amount," he says. "The big question for 2026 is this: where will this polarization lead us?" In this sense, the island's situation is also intertwined with the international one, especially with the evolving situation of US President Donald Trump, who will face midterm elections in 2026. "His influence has strengthened extremist parties worldwide," he remarks. Regarding Spain, he warns that "the Spanish governing coalition is weakened and faces parliamentary instability." "As regional elections appear on the calendar, it will find itself increasingly at odds with the PP and Vox." This landscape gives members of the coalition and the parties that provide stability to President Pedro Sánchez "increasing incentives to differentiate themselves from their electoral rivals." This, he warns, is already becoming apparent and could intensify.