The PP stagnates in Galicia and sees the Xunta in danger (before the Puigdemont effect)

BarcelonaThe elections in Galicia are becoming increasingly tight and the PP sees its absolute majority fully in danger even before the Puigdemont effect was triggered by the proposal for a conditional pardon for the former president by Alberto Núñez Feijóo. This is revealed by the latest poll from the Sociological Research Center (CIS) prior to this Sunday's regional elections, in which the popular party led by Alfonso Rueda has stalled at 42.2% of the votes and between 34 and 38 seats –the same as in the previous survey–, while the Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG) is soaring. The sovereignists are reaching 33.4% of the ballots, with growth that would allow them to reach between 24 and 31 deputies, a historic record for the formation. If the CIS is correct, this double scenario makes the conservative absolute majority in Parliament hang by a thread. In parallel, the PSdeG-PSOE is sinking to 18% of the support, placing it between 9 and 14 deputies, in a particularly negative result for the socialist candidacy.

In the first examination after the amnesty law, there could be a significant blow for Feijóo, who is risking the strength of his leadership after stances towards the independentists that have baffled his party in the midst of the campaign, even though Isabel Díaz Ayuso has tried to downplay it. This poll does not yet reflect the effect of his pardon proposals, which have caused a stir in the rest of the parties. However, they reinforce a dangerous dynamic for his interests in which everything can be decided by very few votes. At the same time, while the PP could come out of it badly, Pedro Sánchez would not fare much better either, because his candidate in these elections, José Ramón Gómez Besteiro, could fall below ten deputies, even twenty below the BNG. The useful vote that the BNG candidate, Ana Pontón, is appealing to is reinforced by the upward trend in most of the polls published these days, including that of the CIS, which boosts the voting intention for the highest-rated presidential candidate according to the state demographic organization.

On the other hand, Sumar would not have guaranteed representation, as it could obtain no representatives or achieve two, while Vox is between 0 and 1. Both formations are slightly above 2% of votes when 5% is needed to obtain a deputy's seat in any of the four constituencies. Therefore, Yolanda Díaz's choice, Marta Lois, might not even secure any presence in the Galician parliament. On the other hand, the localist and populist party Democracia Ourensana could get a deputy who could become decisive, as reflected by a good number of polls, which place it above the minimum percentage required in the province where it is running.

Technical tie in the State

The CIS has also released a barometer today on vote intention across the State in which it predicts a technical tie between the PSOE and the PP. The popular party grows almost one point since the previous poll and reaches 33.2%, thus catching up with the socialists, who drop one point and remain at 33%. Sumar advances a few tenths and remains in third position with 10.2% while Vox also drops a few tenths and does not reach even 8% of the votes. As for Podemos, it would obtain a meager 2.9% of the votes.

Contrary to what happened in the January barometer, ERC now overtakes Junts again in the CIS's estimation and would obtain 2.1%, thus improving the result of 23-J (1.9%). Carles Puigdemont's party would fall to 1% of the votes, half of what the republicans would get, amid the controversy over the vote on the amnesty law.