The PSOE storm stands in the way of Negueruela's change of strategy

Palm“We are in shock, amazing”. “It is very frustrating”. “Whatever we do in the Islands, the reality of the PSOE overwhelms us”. “It is a tsunami”. These are some of the reactions among socialist party officials from the Islands after two weeks of national headlines about alleged corruption in the PSOE. The storm at Ferraz has impacted the morale of the PSIB at a delicate moment: with Francina Armengol's leadership in doubt and Iago Negueruela in the midst of a strategy change in Parliament.

The search by the Civil Guard at the party's national headquarters to request information about a new case from the National Court concerning former PSOE leaders has been added to the Zapatero case. A succession of scandals that the PP and Vox have not missed and highlighted in last Tuesday's plenary session. In parallel, President Marga Prohens demanded early elections last Wednesday. “The legislature is over”, proclaimed the popular leader. All of this pushed the debate on the Omnibus Law and the amendments that the PSIB introduced regarding the taxi sector and the Tax Agency of the Islands to the background. These specific agreements consolidate the shift the party has made in the last year to project an institutional and pact-making profile, contrasting with the first half of the legislature in which the frontal clash between the PP and the PSIB was the general tone. “Having such an aggressive tone did not work out for us”, admits a source from the executive: “It is better to maintain an institutional tone and assert ourselves as a governing party”.

The PSIB understood in the last general policy debate that it had to change its tactics. When the parliamentary group spokesperson, Iago Negueruela, offered the PP to raise the Sustainable Tourism Tax (ITS) and tax rental cars, he cornered the PP. Prohens refused, calling the offer "opportunism," but the socialists came away with a sense of victory. Since then, the PSIB has combined bickering with the PP during plenary sessions with moments of outstretched hand to agree on the anti-crisis decree, facilitate the processing of the Omnibus Law – the last major regulation of the legislature – and agree on various amendments to it, agreed with social actors. "There is no permanent social criticism of the Government," argues this source from the executive. "MÉS per Mallorca did not accompany us at the beginning of the legislature in the confrontation strategy, and being alone it was not so effective," he laments. In the PP, the change in dynamics has not gone unnoticed, and sources from the Executive express surprise at the socialists' willingness to agree on certain measures.

Shift to a more institutional profile

While the definitive decision on Armengol is awaited – and whether she will finally be replaced as candidate by Rosario Sánchez –, the PSIB is seeking to reposition itself thus for the 2027 elections. Anna López, a doctor in Political Science from the University of Valencia, believes the party is on the right track: “The regional PSOE needs to differentiate itself through management, agreements, and an institutional profile.” According to the expert, “when there is a lot of national noise, the regional governments that best withstand it are those that project stability, proximity, and the capacity for pacts.”

However, this national noise could be too much. “It is difficult to reach people because everyone is talking about José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and the judicial cases,” laments a party official, who still appears “incredule” about the accusations of alleged influence peddling against the former Spanish president. Although sources from the leadership indicate that a strategy is being worked on to “protect the party,” this official expresses frustration. “What can we do? Meet to talk about what? Who would have imagined this? The problem is that it drags us down,” they lament.

“We have to remain calm, even though all the regional federations see themselves affected by the national dynamic,” expresses a source from the executive in turn. They admit a “mix” of feelings, between concern for the gravity of the acts attributed to prominent party leaders and “rage” at the attacks from the PP and Vox.

López summarizes the situation thus: “The problem for the PSOE is not just judicial, but emotional and atmospheric.” “When you have leaks, court documents, and constant noise for months, the government enters a permanent defensive position, which is exhausting even if the legislature continues to function,” they argue: “Politics stops being about management and the economy and starts revolving around suspicions and negative emotions.” “The party at the regional level ends up bearing the national wear and tear even if it has nothing to do with it,” they observe.

According to the expert, the territorial federation is preparing to absorb a protest vote that later, in the general elections, may end up returning to the PSOE. However, political analyst Toni Fornés does not take this for granted. “The electorate increasingly knows how to differentiate between different electoral competitions, and the PSOE is strong in the territorial sphere”, he opines: “The main threat is that the party's erosion in Madrid may demobilize the local voter”. Thus, he considers that the PSIB, which until now has been “more focused on ensuring organic control”, must begin to plan how to “motivate the vote for the upcoming elections”.