Cala Estància is at risk of disappearing before 2050 and the Balearic Islands, of losing 17% of their GDP per capita due to climate change

PalmaCala Estància is at risk of losing almost all of its sand and disappearing as a beach before 2050. The Balearic Islands could see their GDP per capita reduced by up to 17% due to the effects of climate change, which is no longer a forecast, but a fact with very concrete consequences. And Palma could go from suffering two weeks of extreme heat per year to enduring almost nine. These are three of the most striking conclusions of a report prepared by AXA Climate and presented this Wednesday by the AXA Foundation, which puts figures on the economic, environmental, and social consequences of global warming on the Islands, with special detail on the case of Palma.

The study Caring for the present, protecting the tomorrow: climate adaptation for the city of Palma, warns that coastal erosion, water scarcity, and rising temperatures could profoundly transform the Balearic capital. The most severe projections correspond to a high-emissions scenario, without sufficient global warming reduction or effective adaptation measures.

The first alert affects the coastline. Cala Estància could lose 96% of its current beach width by 2050, while Can Pere Antoni would also see its width reduced by 80%. According to the report, the average sea level could rise by about 24 centimeters by the middle of the century, which would accelerate erosion and increase the risk of flooding during storms. At Cala Estància, the beach would go from about 19 meters wide to just 75 centimeters; at Es Troneres, from 16 to 4 meters.

The threat is also economic. Tourism, one of the main activities in the Balearic Islands, depends on the state of the beaches, water availability, and climate comfort. AXA Climate estimates that the combined effects of climate change could lead to "a loss of up to 17% of the Islands' GDP per capita by 2050," according to Claudia Ylla, the report's author, who warns that certain economic activities will need to be rethought. "To maintain economic activity, Palma's companies will have to adapt by adopting measures of varying complexity: from reinforcing risk culture and the memory of past episodes to rethinking the tourism offering by taking coastal risk into account, including the restoration of marine ecosystems and the renaturalization of the coastline," she explains.

Two months of extreme heat per year

Heat is another one of the major threats. According to AXA Climate projections, “Palma could go from 15 to 62 days per year with a heat index above 33 degrees”. The number of hot days would increase from 36 to 98, while warm nights would go from 36 to 99. The average duration of heatwaves could triple.

The consequences would especially affect the elderly, children, the chronically ill, and workers exposed to the outdoors, but also nighttime rest, labor productivity, and tourism activity.

In an extreme scenario and without additional adaptation measures, the study estimates that heat could cause up to 12,000 additional accumulated deaths in Palma by 2050. With effective policies, this risk could be drastically reduced. The effects of heat on the economy alone could mean a loss of more than 16% of the Balearic GDP per capita, according to the model.

Five overexploited aquifers by 2027

The lack of water constitutes another of the major problems. According to the authors of the report, "three of the nine aquifers that supply Palma are already overexploited and, if current extraction levels are maintained, by 2027 there could be five," they confirmed during the presentation of the work.

The situation could worsen with a 20% reduction in rainfall and a 10% increase in evapotranspiration by 2050, which would hinder the natural recharge of groundwater reserves. In addition, several coastal aquifers suffer from salinization problems due to the entry of seawater, a phenomenon favored both by extractions and by rising sea levels.

The report places Palma in a situation of extreme water stress. According to the indicator used, water demand already multiplies the available renewable resources by approximately five, and could approach six times by 2050. This pressure intensifies during the summer, when consumption linked to tourism increases.

Floods and fires: the other risks

AXA Climate also estimates that some 309,000 people, approximately 60% of the population considered in the study, would be in zones exposed to an exceptional flood event. This is a scenario with a return period of a thousand years, not a forecast for regular flooding.

Among the particularly sensitive points are the surroundings of the airport, industrial zones, torrents, and the lowest-lying urban neighborhoods. The damage could affect homes, transport infrastructure, sanitation networks, and economic activities.

Regarding forest fires, projections indicate that the period with conditions favorable to fire would extend by about ten days annually until 2050. The number of days with at least moderate risk would increase from 162 to 172, in a context of higher temperatures and vegetation subjected to increasing drought.

Adapting Palma before the damage becomes irreversible

In light of these projections, the AXA Foundation argues that reducing emissions will not be enough: it will also be necessary to prepare cities and economic activities to face the impacts of climate change.

The report proposes restoring coastal ecosystems, recovering native vegetation, renaturing urban spaces, improving water management, and adapting buildings to higher temperatures. It also suggests reviewing land use along the coast and preparing protocols for heatwaves and floods.

The tourism sector has an especially important role to play. According to the study, it will have to reduce water consumption, adapt facilities and schedules, and incorporate climate risks into investment decisions.