The PP would win the elections by a narrow margin but the PSOE and Sumar would approach absolute majority, according to the CIS

BarcelonaWhen all the polls, and even more so after the blue wave of May 28, predict a more or less tight victory for the right-wing bloc in the State on July 23, the CIS does exactly the opposite. According to the organization led by José Félix Tezanos, the left not only does not retreat, but advances, as both the PSOE and Sumar could improve their results to the point of bordering on an absolute majority. In contrast, the PP and Vox would not reach it in any case.

The CIS, however, predicts a victory for the PP in the upcoming elections on July 23, but a slim one, with only two tenths of an advantage over the PSOE and without reaching an absolute majority by adding their seats to those of Vox. The Popular Party would obtain 31.4% of the votes and between 122 and 140 seats (it currently has 88). For its part, Vox would get 10.6% of the votes and between 21 and 29 seats, that is, it would lose almost half of the representation it now has, which is 52. The sum at the high end for both parties would reach 169 seats, 7 short of an absolute majority. And at the low end, it would be 143, less than the 150 that the triple right-wing alliance with Cs now sums up to.

The PSOE would come in second place, almost tied, with 31.2% of the votes and a range of between 115 and 135 seats. In third place would be Sumar, Yolanda Díaz's platform, with 16.4% of the votes and between 43 and 50 seats. The results of the two left-wing forces would surpass those of 2019 and would approach an absolute majority (on the low end they would sum 158, which is what they have now, and on the high end 185, when the majority is 176). In other words, in the worst-case scenario of the CIS, the sum of the PSOE and Sumar would be left with the same number of seats that in 2019 the PSOE, Unidas Podemos, Más País, and Compromís obtained. And in the best-case scenario, they would not even need to make a pact with the Catalan and Basque sovereignist parties.

Independence debacle

And it is that the CIS predicts an authentic defeat for the Catalan pro-independence parties. ERC would obtain between 5 and 7 seats (it currently has 13), Junts between 3 and 6 (in 2019 it got 8) and the CUP between 0 and 1 (it now has 2). In the case of the Basques, it is noteworthy that EH Bildu would surpass the PNB and would get between 4 and 7 deputies, while the jeltzales would be left with between 3 and 5.

The most surprising thing about this CIS, and which, let's remember, no other demographic study collects, is the strength of the left-wing bloc, since the sum of PSOE and Sumar would reach 47.6% of the votes, while the PP and Vox would be left with 42%, just after May 28. The undecided could not change the trend either. Firstly, because they are relatively few, 13.8%, and secondly, because the most important bulk of these, 36.4%, hesitate between PSOE and Sumar. 16.5% do so between PP and Vox, and 10.7% between PP and PSOE.

The PSC sweeps Catalonia

The survey gives the predicted result by constituencies and allows us to see the results in Catalonia, where the PSC would sweep and obtain between 18 and 22 seats. In second place would be Sumar, with between 7 and 9 seats. In third place, pay attention, would be the PP, with between 6 and 8 seats. ERC would be fourth with between 5 and 7 deputies, and Junts fifth with between 3 and 6. Vox would get 2 and the CUP between 0 and 1. Tezanos' forecast for Catalonia, where independence is sinking like the Titanic, is radically different from what the CEO of the political scientist Jordi Muñoz did today.