Climate change puts the Balearic vineyards and almond groves at risk

PalmVineyards and almond trees, two emblematic crops of the Balearic Islands, could see their future jeopardized in the medium term if temperatures continue to rise. This warning came yesterday from biologist and professor at the University of the Balearic Islands, Jaume Vadell, during his address to the Parliament's Commission on Climate Change in Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries. According to Vadell, both species "suffer" from high temperatures and depend on a specific number of chill hours to complete their productive cycle. "The reduction of these hours is key for woody crops. Although heat may initially stimulate growth, yields decrease when a certain threshold is exceeded," he cautioned. For this reason, he proposed rethinking the agricultural zoning for these crops. The scientist also pointed out that other horticultural crops, such as tomatoes, melons, and watermelons, could be jeopardized if the current trend of rising temperatures persists. In contrast, crops like corn or alfalfa tolerate the heat better, although "above 36 or 37 degrees Celsius, growth is also limited." Regarding olive groves and carob trees, Vadell emphasized that they are "more resilient" species with a superior capacity for adaptation.

A climate model that is already showing its consequences

Vadell began his presentation with an explanation of the carbon cycle and the role fossil fuels have played in accelerating the greenhouse effect. The concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide has destabilized a balance that had been maintained for millennia, he explained. This disruption has led to a sustained increase in global temperatures, with increasingly frequent extreme weather events. "Phenomena that used to occur every ten years can now happen more than once a year," he stated.

The biologist placed particular emphasis on torrential rains, which hinder water infiltration, increase erosion, and promote soil loss. He showed images of flash floods and clay soil being washed into the sea to illustrate the process. "This soil is a non-renewable resource. When it's gone, it's lost forever," he warned. In the short term, this translates into poorer fields, with the bedrock increasingly exposed.

A different reality for each island

Vadell insisted that the impacts of climate change are not uniform across the archipelago. In Menorca, he asserted, the effect is "less extreme"; in Mallorca, "highly variable depending on the area"; and in Ibiza and Formentera, "clearly more critical." To demonstrate this, he compared data from Mercadal and Santa Eulària on rainfall, vegetation regeneration, and aquifer status with projections of +1°C and +2°C. The simulations show that, while evapotranspiration increases everywhere, Ibiza's vegetation reserve is much more severely affected.

Soil-based solutions

Faced with a scenario he described as "complex, but not irreversible," Vadell called for measures aimed at increasing soil organic matter: the use of cover crops, green manures, improved utilization of agricultural waste, and more sustainable tillage practices. All of this, he said, would contribute to improving fertility, retaining moisture, and strengthening the recharge capacity of aquifers, while also reducing stress on crops and pastures.