The Balearic Islands will lead the increase in heatwaves until 2050

PalmaThe Balearic Islands will be one of the territories in the State most affected by the increase in heatwaves in the coming decades. According to the Heat Vulnerability Atlas, prepared by the urban analysis group trescientosmil and the Department of Earth Sciences of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center within the framework of the European project Impetus4Change, the Islands and the Catalan coast are at the forefront of forecasts for the increase of this phenomenon until 2050.

The study analyzes the predicted evolution in 161 Spanish municipalities with more than 40,000 inhabitants and concludes that heatwave days will triple between 2000 and 2050. Researchers consider a heatwave to be any period of more than three consecutive days with maximum temperatures higher than those recorded during the reference period 1981-2010.

Among the Balearic municipalities analyzed, Ibiza is the one that will experience the most intense increase, with 70.1 more days of heatwaves each year. They are followed by Calvià, with 57.1 more days; Llucmajor, with 56.1; Palma, with 53.2; and Manacor, with 42.6.

The report also warns that this scenario will significantly increase the need to cool homes. In Palma, this demand will increase by 158.3 degree-days; in Calvià, by 168.5, and in Ibiza, by 157. The authors warn that this situation could worsen energy poverty, increase electricity consumption, and raise greenhouse gas emissions.

According to the study's managers, urban environments and the residential park will have to face climatic conditions for which many buildings were not conceived. This will force housing to be adapted to keep them habitable. But they recall that a significant part of the population does not have the necessary economic resources to carry out these reforms.

The atlas also reveals a territorial pattern. While the southern Iberian Peninsula will concentrate the most significant increases in cooling needs, the Balearic Islands and the Catalan coast will lead the rise in heatwaves. In contrast, the Cantabrian coast will be the least affected area by these two phenomena.

The authors conclude that this evolution can accentuate territorial inequalities, as not all cities face climate change with the same conditions or the same capacity for adaptation.