The heat is coming early: Aemet predicts an above-average spring

PalmSpring 2026—which will run from March 20 to June 21—will likely be warmer than usual in the Balearic Islands. This was announced on Thursday by the spokesperson for the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet), Rubén del Campo, during the presentation of the winter climate report. According to the forecasts, there is approximately a 70% probability that the three-month period will have above-average temperatures. The Aemet delegation in the Islands explains that the average temperature for the April-June period is most likely to exceed 18°C, the value considered normal. The usual trend is for temperatures to rise gradually throughout spring, with the highest values ​​towards the end of the period.

Regarding rainfall, on average, between April and June, around 92 liters per square meter typically fall across the Balearic Islands, and current forecasts indicate that rainfall is likely to be around that average.

The temperature may drop

Spring is a transitional season between winter and summer. Thus, during the first few weeks, it is common to see alternating periods of high pressure and the passage of fronts and low-pressure systems, which can bring heavy showers, thunderstorms, squalls, or wind. In some instances, temperatures may also drop, and there may even be some snowfall on the peaks of the Tramuntana mountain range or light frosts.

As the season progresses, the days take on more summery characteristics: temperatures rise and low-pressure systems become less frequent. With some episodes of Saharan air, muddy rain may occur, while during periods of stable weather, sea fog may appear, especially in coastal areas. Towards the end of the season, some episodes of high temperatures or even a first heat wave cannot be ruled out.

A very warm winter

The forecast comes after a very warm winter in the Balearic Islands. The average temperature has been 12.2 °C, with an anomaly of 1.6 °C above normal. At Palma Airport, it was the warmest winter on record, with an average of 12.1 °C in a historical series dating back to 1955. It was also the warmest winter in Ciutadella, with an average of 13.3 °C in data available since 1991. Notable records include Lluc (11 °C, with an anomaly of 3.1 °C), Pollença (14.2 °C), Palma Airport (13.3 °C), Port de Sóller (14.1 °C), and Sant Joan de Labritja (13.2 °C). The highest temperatures of the winter were also recorded in February, with over 20 °C on several islands. In Mallorca, temperatures reached 25.3 °C in Pollença on February 25th, while in Menorca, 21.3 °C was recorded in La Mola on the 11th, and in Ibiza, 23.4 °C on the 10th. Formentera reached 20 °C on the 11th and 17th. Rainfall: Palma Airport has recorded a record number of rainy days, with 48, in a data series dating back to 1952.