Five lessons in a Balearic key from the Andalusian elections

Palma“We are waiting for the Andalusians”. This was the mantra that the Balearic PP repeated after the results from Extremadura and Aragon. Juanma Moreno Bonilla is one of Marga Prohens' main points of reference among the popular barons. The president has sought to replicate both her managerial profile – with tax reductions and administrative simplification laws – and her moderate discourse and the model of relationship with Vox. But the insufficient victory of the Andalusian president who, with 53 seats, has fallen two deputies short of an absolute majority, has cast doubts on the Andalusian path, and forces the popular party to rethink its strategy for 2027.

The Andalusian path, in doubt

Prohens can modify his profile to compete electorally with Vox

“The PP is in a very good moment, with an important hegemony”, explains the political scientist and professor at Pompeu Fabra University (UPF) Toni Rodon. The problem, however, is that “it can only make agreements with one party, which is Vox”. For this reason, a primary objective of the PP leaders has been to achieve absolute majorities to be able to do without their far-right partner. In this sense, political scientist Julián Claramunt explains that different strategies have been chosen. Either follow that of the president of the Community of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, “with a more radical and Trumpist discourse”, or the Andalusian path of Moreno Bonilla, “more calm” and with an institutional profile. Prohens opted for the second. The fact that the Andalusian president has lost five deputies compared to 2022 and, consequently, the absolute majority, calls this choice into question. A year before the elections, Claramunt considers that the president must reflect on whether “it might be more profitable for her to 'ayusize' her profile”.

Prohens' decision to govern in minority has given him stabilityEndorsement to leave Vox out

Prohens' decision to govern in minority has given him stability

Government sources admit that, in view of these results, expectations are low. However, for now there are no strategic changes planned: “One thing is that achieving an absolute majority is very difficult, and another is that we don't try.” The event that the party leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, will headline with the president on Saturday in Palma will set the tone for the pre-campaign.

The possibility of distancing itself from Vox is remote for now, but the PP has also learned that distancing itself from it, or even leaving it out of the Government, can benefit it. “The left is playing to highlight that the PP could only make a deal with Vox, and cites the pact in the Valencian Country as an example, which was quick, to mobilize the left-wing or center electorate,” explains Rodon. In this sense, the achievement that Prohens reached in 2023 of governing in minority with the parliamentary support of Vox is gaining traction within the party. “The PP has understood, from the Extremaduran case, that prolonging coalition formation a bit and not immediately selling out to Vox gives them an advantage,” explains the political scientist. In fact, Moreno Bonilla has already announced that he will try to govern alone with “agreements” with Vox.

Vox is growing, but minimally

The state dynamic lowers the expectations of the far right

The professor of political science at the Pablo de Olavide University of Seville, José Manuel Trujillo, insists on the importance of state dynamics in deciding regional election results. The elections in Extremadura (December 22), Aragón (February 8), and Castilla y León (March 15) already presented a panorama very similar to Andalusia's: with PP victories too short to govern alone. The plot twist that the popular party cadres expected due to Moreno Bonilla's personalist leadership has not materialized.

Endavant Andalusia's results spur the sovereignist leftPunishment for Pedro Sánchez

The autonomies take on the discontent with the PSOE

In the same way, Trujillo considers that the socialists have received the punishment from some voters at the polls for the Spanish government of PSOE and Sumar. A vote that, he considers, in the general elections can return to the state left in the form of "useful vote". "One of the campaign images has been the socialist candidate, María Jesús Montero [who resigned from her position as first vice-president and Minister of Finance to run] defending the Spanish government's policy," Trujillo points out: _"I don't know if talking about another government, when you present yourself as an alternative, is very effective".

MÉS per Mallorca wakes up

The results of Endavant Andalusia encourage the sovereignist left

The results of Endavant Andalusia – it has gone from two to eight seats – have caught the attention of MÉS per Mallorca. The leader, Lluís Apesteguia, insisted that the sovereignist left is the one that has "capacity for growth and to stand up to the right and the far right". Experts confirm that the state trend is blowing in their favour. However, they also warn that the eco-sovereignists accumulate wear and tear from having been part of previous Pact governments, which the Andalusian party does not have. As Bezzina explains, MÉS now faces the challenge of "collecting the political discontent of progressive people who stayed home in the last elections".u